News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • How does stock market liquidity benefit its traders? Learn more here: https://t.co/FWKyIDUwAw https://t.co/tyoYrsh8mQ
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/4078fnQJON
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/kIIBffEMi7 https://t.co/tt59BU8lnS
  • Quarterly earnings from Netflix and Tesla, two big tech companies, will take center stage next week and could set the trading tone for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Get your weekly equities forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/NOCqjJ3TLd https://t.co/HR5xUZeJXp
  • Do you know the difference between investing and trading? Because while the goal might seem the same, they're very different things . Learn more here.https://t.co/fG6fNEPj9q https://t.co/ymGaYjrl1g
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/FOMcsxci50
  • Further your trading knowledge and gain informed market analyses from our expert analyst @DavidJSong on Oil with our free Q4 guide, available for free today.https://t.co/Y6XECmr5fQ https://t.co/XQI3PN4bkQ
  • Nasdaq 100 may hit new high soon. https://t.co/ACtVqiOBl0
  • HSTECH index has likely formed an "Inverse Head & Shoulders" pattern. https://t.co/YFIQEYmuyq
  • The HSI has likely formed a “Double Bottom” chart pattern, which is usually viewed as bullish-biased. https://t.co/wMQ14A867Q
US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Talking Points:

The US dollar put in a quick move of strength this morning on the back of a really strong retail sales report. This helped the USD to push above a big zone of resistance while setting a fresh September high, and at this point, from a short-term basis, we can see buyers trying to hold the move by showing support around the topside of that prior resistance zone, plotted around 92.89, the same level that I had looked at on Monday as resistance in DXY.

US Dollar Hourly Price Chart

US Dollar hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

Can Bulls Retain the Range Break with the Fed Around the Corner?

The big question here is whether buyers can sustain the move. The range in USD had held fairly well through September trade, and with a really big FOMC meeting on the economic calendar for next week, that made sense.

But, with this morning’s really strong retail sales report pushing the Greenback above range resistance, there could be scope for further strength as investors and traders position ahead of that rate decision next Wednesday.

Taking a step back highlights the early nature of this theme, with the USD just starting to test above that resistance; but still showing a move that may be faded by traders looking to play compression ahead of the FOMC.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

EUR/USD Sets Fresh September Low

When I looked at the US Dollar and related pairs on Monday, EUR/USD was holding on to a bullish move. As I had shared, the resistance zone around the 1.1850 level could be used for bearish continuation strategies and after a test in that zone on Tuesday, bears have been on the attack.

This morning brought a decisive move below the prior swing-low of 1.1768, and on the hourly chart there’s even been a build of short-term resistance at that level, highlighting its relationship to the 92.89 level on DXY.

The complication with bearish continuation here is the big zone of support lurking just below, spanning from 1.1709-1.1736. That area was in-play in both March and August of this year, with the current 2021 low just a little lower at 1.1664.

Similar to the USD above, the big question is whether EUR/USD bears are confident enough to pose a break ahead of the FOMC rate decision next week.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

GBP/USD Back to Support

I was looking at GBP/USD for short-side setups in the USD on Monday, with eyes on the 1.3879 Fibonacci level for breakout potential. That level was tested through on Tuesday but price action turned around very quickly and dove down to the support zone that was in-play last week. This spans from the 1.3750 psychological level up to 1.3768, and this can retain a possible option for those looking to trade this recent move of strength in the USD.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

AUD/USD Falling Wedge with a Support Test

Another market testing some support after this USD rip up to resistance is AUD/USD. The pair had put in a strong reversal from the August lows, jumping by more than 375 pips up to the September high.

So far in September, however, that move has been pulling back and there’s been about 50% of it retraced already. That 50% retracement is confluent with another Fibonacci level, taken from the 23.6% retracement of the May-August major move.

There’s another item here that can keep the door open on the long side, provided that this support can hold through the day, and that’s a falling wedge formation that’s built through September trade. Falling wedges are often approached with the aim of bullish reversals and, again, if that support can hold, then the door may remain open to that theme and similar to the above in GBP/USD, it can be an option for those looking to fade this recent move of strength in the US Dollar.

To learn more about falling wedges, check out DailyFX Education

AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

AUDUSD four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES