News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Coming up at half past: my weekly webinar looking at the charts, the sentiment indicators on the calendar this week and the IG client positioning data. Do join me if you can https://t.co/k8xpSlEM0n
  • Join @MartinSEssex at 5:30 EST/9:30 GMT for a webinar on trading sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/CX9djlHnWK https://t.co/DHjcgvlboC
  • 🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (AUG) Actual: €-3.9B Previous: €-1.60B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-19
  • 🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (SEP) Actual: 0.6% Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-19
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.40%, while traders in USD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 76.25%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/U1taXgNx2T
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €-1.60B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-19
  • Heads Up:🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (SEP) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-19
  • 🇮🇩 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 3.5% Expected: 3.5% Previous: 3.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-19
  • Get your basics right. Find out what is stock market volatility and how you can trade It here:https://t.co/pK95WaqA3j https://t.co/0nrgHNl224
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.14% Gold: 0.81% Oil - US Crude: 0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/llK2Hpegt8
Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Crude Oil Sinks to Fresh Four-Month-Lows

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Crude Oil Sinks to Fresh Four-Month-Lows

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

Crude Oil Price Forecast Talking Points:

  • WTI Crude Oil fell to a fresh four-month-low this morning.
  • This fresh low broke through range support that’s held for the better part of two months.
  • The sell-off has so far found support at a key Fibonacci level plotted around 35.66.
  • The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our DailyFX Education section.
Advertisement

Crude Oil Sell-Off Breaks Range to Set Fresh Four-Month-Lows

The earlier-year break below the zero level looms large in Crude Oil prices, but, for the past two months, WTI has been in a fairly consistent range with about $4 of deviation from support to resistance. The support-side of that range was violated earlier this morning as sellers pushed prices down to a fresh four-month-low, eventually finding some support at a key Fibonacci level.

{{GUIDE| OILTRADINGFUND}}

The price of 35.66 is the 38.2% retracement of the 2020 major move, as taken from the CL2 chart. Given the outlier event of prices breaking below-zero in April, many crude oil charts show obfuscated long-term technical criteria. But, by looking at CL2, which is the next month’s contract rather than the current months, we can strip out that outlier event to, ideally, get a more clear look at what today’s moves mean in terms of the bigger picture. Normally, I’d be hesitant to embark on such retrofitting but, given the outlier event as well as the 50% level from that same Fibonacci study helping to set recent range resistance, I’m a bit more open to following CL2 than I might be otherwise.

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (CL2)

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

Taking a shorter-term look at the matter, and Crude Oil prices are bouncing from that Fibonacci support into the prior zone of range support. The prior swing-low that was set yesterday, at around 37.32, could open the door for resistance plays for those looking to trade short-side continuation scenarios. Also of interest for resistance potential inside that zone of prior range support – the October 2nd low at 36.93 could also provide some usable context for bears.

WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES