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USD/CAD Tests Resistance: US to Canadian Dollar Price Analysis

USD/CAD Tests Resistance: US to Canadian Dollar Price Analysis

2020-02-05 13:34:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
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US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, USD/CAD Price Analysis

  • USD/CAD put in a very strong month of January, reversing almost the entirety of the December sell-off.
  • USD/CAD price action continued that rally on Monday, eventually finding resistance at 1.3300.
  • Friday brings employment reports out of both US and Canada, making for a busy backdrop in USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Makes a Comeback After Testing Below 1.3000

So far 2020 price action has marked a stark contrast in USD/CAD price action. The pair finished last year with a strong sell-off in the month of December, falling from an early-month-high of 1.3321 to test below the 1.3000 handle for the first time since October of 2018. That 1.3000 level brought in multiple items of support last year, helping to reverse bearish trends in July and October before finally succumbing to selling pressure on the final trading day of last year.

Since then, however, it’s been a far different story: What started as a pullback turned into a rally, helped along by a couple of Canadian drivers that came into the fray two weeks ago. An early-morning CPI print led into the Bank of Canada rate decision, and the BoC didn’t sound as optimistic as they had previously and this allowed for even more CAD-weakness to enter the mix as near-term rate cut bets got priced-in. That’s around the time that USD/CAD shot up to a key zone of resistance, running around the 1.3132 Fibonacci level up to 1.3150; and after holding bulls at bay for a couple of days, USD-strength took over as USD/CAD continued its pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows.

USD/CAD Two-Hour Price Chart

usdcad two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

USD/CAD Caught at Resistance

On a longer-term basis, USD/CAD price action finds itself in an interesting spot. Last year’s gyration in the pair had a net bearish reading, given the fact that the early-January high of 1.3664 led into the 1.2952 low set on the final day of last year. But so far in early-2020 trade, almost half of that move has been erased as a potent combo of both USD-strength and CAD-weakness has gotten priced back into the mix.

USD/CAD BEARISH
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% 9% 10%
Weekly 7% -31% -24%
Current Retail Sentiment in USD/CAD
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Also of interest on the resistance side of the coin has been the continual series of lower-highs that have shown over the past few months; with the September high of 1.3383 leading to the October high of 1.3346 followed by the November high of 1.3328.

Will bulls be able to continue pushing, breaking that sequence of lower-highs that’s been building for the past half-of-a-year?

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

usdcad daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

USD/CAD: Can Bulls Continue to Push Despite Overbought Conditions?

At this point, the near-term trend runs counter to the longer-term swing potential in the pair; and given the Friday drivers on the economic calendar, there’s a likely period for when a directional push might show. The Friday jobs reports out of both the US and Canada are likely to bring volatility into the mix, and for those looking at bullish continuation strategies, this could allow for a pullback in the pair as overbought positions cool. On the above daily chart, RSI has just entered into overbought territory, the first such occurrence on the Daily since January of last year just before the pair reversed by almost 500 pips.

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From the four hour chart below, three potential support points have been identified that could be usable for either approach.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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