US Dollar, USD/CAD Talking Points:
- The US Dollar caught a quick run of weakness this morning on the back of the NFP release.
- While NFP printed below expectations, Canadian jobs beat expectations, helping to bring strength into CAD and weakness into USD/CAD.
NFP, Canadian Jobs Numbers Released: USD/CAD on the Move
This is one of those special mornings that FX traders look forward to every month. At 8:30 AM ET, both US and Canadian jobs numbers were released to markets. In the US, December job numbers printed below expectations, coming in at +145k v/s an expectation of +160k. Perhaps the more disappointing facet of this morning’s report was Average Hourly Earnings, which came in at 2.9% versus an expectation for 3.1%; even as the unemployment rate remained stable, printing right at the 3.5% marker that showed last month and was expected for this month.
Elsewhere, Canadian jobs came in better than expected, showing at 35.2k versus an expectation of 25k and much better than last month’s -71.2k.
The dual effect of this morning’s employment releases has helped to hasten the sell-off in USD/CAD. The pair ran into a confluent area of resistance yesterday, taken from a prior swing-low that meshed up with the underside of a trend-line projection. This was looked at in yesterday’s webinar and since then sellers have come back into the matter to quell this week’s retracement.
USD/CAD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview
The big question at this point is whether sellers can continue to drive in USD/CAD. The month of December brought a one-sided trend as sellers took-over, finally breaking below the 1.3000 psychological level after multiple attempts to do the same had failed last year. But, once prices tested below the psychological level, selling pressure dried up, and that led to a three-day-spurt that saw more than 150 pips clawed back, until that confluent resistance level came into play yesterday.
At this point, prices are again nearing another test of that 1.3000 psychological level, and below that is support potential around the 14-month low of 1.2950. Below that, a Fibonacci level at 1.2928 could remain of interest for follow-thru support.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| Weekly | -45% | 29% | -6% |
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview
For those looking at bullish strategies in the pair, attempting to fade this morning’s run of weakness, a hold of support around that 1.3000 level, which also shows as prior resistance, could make that approach look more attractive, highlighting the fact that buyers are willing to step-in and defend this very key level on the chart.
USD/CAD Hourly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
