We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
US Dollar, EUR/USD Test Key Resistance Hurdles on the Chart

US Dollar, EUR/USD Test Key Resistance Hurdles on the Chart

2019-11-19 13:34:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
Share:

US Dollar, EUR/USD Talking Points:

  • It’s been a directional month so far in both EUR/USD and the US Dollar. Those directional moves have had recent course corrections, however, leading to the potential for further twists and turns.
  • The US Dollar has seen sellers come back to fade-out 50% of the November rally: Will USD bulls return or is the Greenback set for a redux of the October sell-off with the prospect of fresh lows?
  • DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

US Dollar Bounces Up to Key Resistance

The November rally in the US Dollar is on its back foot following the fall from last Friday that’s continued through Monday trade. This is a story of half-ways, however, as the October sell-off produced a rather large move; and early November price action saw a 50% retracement of that move. But with sellers re-entering the equation, 50% of that rally has now been faded-out of the market since the Dollar topped-out last Thursday, leaving the USD in a precarious spot on the chart.

Collectively, this places USD price action at the 23.6% retracement of the October sell-off, with resistance coming-in from a confluent zone that’s been looked at before and will be highlighted again in a following chart image.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart: Mid-Way Through Q4, Net Weakness

us dollar usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

Taking a step back to incorporate some additional technical items, and the current zone of resistance is not new. This is the same zone that came into play to hold the late-October highs before becoming support in early-November as USD price action was clawing back prior losses. This can help to keep a bearish bias in the Greenback, which could make pairs such as GBP/USD or perhaps even NZD/USD as attractive vehicles for trading USD-weakness.

US Dollar Eight-Hour Chart: USD Re-Tests Resistance Zone from Late-October Highs

us dollar usd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

EUR/USD Tests Key Resistance

For short-side stances in the US Dollar, a few pairs remain of particular interest. I had looked into both USD/CAD and GBP/USD yesterday, each of which offer some potential to go along with a continuation of USD-weakness.

In EUR/USD, however, an interesting backdrop has appeared. The pair pushed-lower in the first half of November to go along with that USD-strength. But last week saw the 1.1000 psychological level come back into play, at which point the proverbial music slowed in the sell-off and a bounce began to develop. EUR/USD price action is now testing a key resistance area on the chart which had previously provided a bit of support as prices were selling off earlier this month. This comes in at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-October sell-off, and this is the same zone of prices that provided a support bounce in late-October trade.

And continuing with our theme of half-ways, this level is confluent with the 50% marker of the November sell-off.

EUR/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

US Dollar, EUR/USD Strategy

For traders looking at a stronger bounce in the US Dollar, the prospect of selling EUR/USD off of the above confluent resistance can be an attractive scenario.

For USD-weakness, however, traders can look to topside breakout potential in EUR/USD, waiting on a push above yesterday’s high at 1.1090 to re-open the door to bullish breakout strategies.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.