US Dollar, GBP/USD Talking Points:
- The US Dollar is back to the 98.00 level on DXY, marking the fourth such test since the level came back into play around last week’s FOMC rate decision.
- The big item this morning has been the Bank of England Super Thursday rate decision, and a surprising two votes for rate cuts helped to pull GBP/USD down to fresh weekly lows.
- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.
US Dollar Back to Resistance
The US Dollar is back at the 98.00 level on DXY and this is the fourth such instance over the past eight days. It appears as though it’s a simple matter of time before buyers able to push up to fresh three-week-highs and given the higher-low support that’s shown over the past couple of days this keeps that theme alive with an ascending triangle formation. The price of 98.00 came in as the swing-high around FOMC and similarly came in to set the daily high on Tuesday morning as well as last night.
US Dollar Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview
US Dollar: Deeper Retracement in the Q4 Reversal?
The big item from last month was the bearish reversal in the US Dollar. The currency came into Q4 with a full head of steam, setting a fresh two-year-high on the first trading day of the quarter. But, the longer-term formation was showing as a rising wedge, which will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals and that was the side looked at in the Q4 Technical Forecast on the US Dollar. That scenario played out through October and t he US Dollar came into the month of November around two-month-lows. But so far this week USD bears have remained at bay.
This morning’s short-term bullish formation comes at odds with the slightly longer-term bearish backdrop. This highlights the potential for a deeper retracement in that bearish USD theme, focusing on lower-high resistance potential around 98.20 or the 98.33-98.50 zone.
US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview
GBP/USD: Cable Dips on BoE
The surprising item so far this morning is that two Bank of England members voted for a rate cut at today’s Super Thursday rate decision. Accenting the backdrop is the fact that this is Mark Carney’s final Super Thursday atop the bank as he’s set to step down in January of next year.
This morning’s news helped to push GBP/USD down to a fresh weekly low. The pair remains relatively strong given proximity to the 1.3000 big figure that came in as the high in October following a really strong run last month. The big question at this point is whether bulls defend the 1.2800 level similar to what happened last week ahead of FOMC; or whether a deeper retracement might develop to go along with a deeper retracement in the US Dollar that could bring into play support levels around 1.2750 or 1.2671-1.2705.
GBP/USD Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
Forex Trading Resources
DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.
If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
