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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Setups for USD Weakness

US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Setups for USD Weakness

What's on this page

US Dollar Price Outlook Talking Points:

  • The US Dollar has posed a bounce up to resistance at a prior support level, showing on the underside of a bullish trendline that had been in-play since last September.
  • EUR/USD and USD/JPY can both retain some element of attractiveness for bearish USD strategies.
  • Tomorrow brings a holiday in the US and Friday brings Non-Farm Payrolls. This can be an especially volatile environment as that print is released into a thin liquidity environment.

US Dollar Bounce Finds Resistance at Prior Support Ahead of NFP

Interesting price action themes are already starting to show in Q3 despite this week being holiday-shortened. Tomorrow will see US markets close in observance of Independence Day, and Friday will likely see limited participation out of the States for a long weekend. But – Friday morning also brings Non-Farm Payrolls, which as usual has the ability to bring some high levels of volatility into the mix, even if just for a short while.

The US Dollar has so far started Q3 on a bright note after the June sell-off, largely coming from a strong day on Monday that pushed prices up to resistance. That resistance is showing around the underside of a bullish trend-line that connects the lows in DXY from September into early-June; and that trend-line made up the support side of a rising wedge pattern that gave-way to sellers two weeks ago. The big question at this point – will sellers hold this resistance going into and around the release of Non-Farm Payrolls?

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

us dollar daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD Grasping for Support

EURUSD price action yesterday put in a doji after the Monday pullback. The pair is holding support around the 1.1285 level and a bit deeper is another zone of interest as taken from prior April swing-highs around the 1.1250-1.1265 region. Should USD-weakness show up as a near-term theme, the topside of EURUSD can remain as attractive, looking for a continuation of the short-squeeze scenario that showed with prominence in the month of June.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

eurusd eur usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDJPY Pushes Down from Resistance

Also on the side of USD-weakness, USDJPY has pushed-lower from a key zone of resistance while filling this week’s opening gap. This keeps the door open for further bearish potential in the pair. Prices are finding a bit of short-term support at the 107.50 level that was looked at yesterday; and a breech below that exposes the 107.00 area of support for short-term breakout targets, after which the prospect of fresh lower-lows comes into play.

USDJPY Two-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.