News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here: https://t.co/xngExEdFdu https://t.co/kqpJ6oGXgt
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/F4dXbUzU3o https://t.co/G0ZWWVtSrZ
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfIZNKr https://t.co/5js6tWk5bY
  • The Euro has regained lost ground against its major counterparts recently. Are further gains in the offing or is this just a short-term countertrend correction? EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD key levels. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/Z71MZEIJWC https://t.co/YAr1kN4eKd
  • Coinbase’s impending initial public offering could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin to push to fresh record highs in the coming days. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/twdu0zqmIM https://t.co/72HRMZlKUn
  • The Swiss Franc has positioned itself against key levels versus the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Euro over the past week. Where next for AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and EUR/CHF? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/CrtQGzvWnm https://t.co/j5Zjn5zY0D
  • (Weekly Fundy) Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD May Rise as Dovish Fed Calms Yields, US Dollar $AUDUSD #AUD #USD #Bonds #Fed https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/04/17/Australian-Dollar-Forecast-AUDUSD-May-Rise-as-Dovish-Fed-Calms-Yields-US-Dollar.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gQDr5fBosb
  • The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc may outperform the US Dollar amid rising long bets in USD/JPY and USD/CHF. But, broader uptrends since January could still remain in play. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Qpeuuyrxhj https://t.co/EfgW9aj7wo
  • Bitcoin struggled to maintain a push into record highs and appears to be vulnerable to a near-term pullback. Litecoin and Ethereum saw more aggressive gains, will their momentum accelerate? Get your $btc market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/f5d7qs5j3z https://t.co/xxMX4YFKCC
  • The US Dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable to ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/THB breaching key support. USD/IDR is eyeing a Rising Wedge, USD/PHP may face February lows. Get your $USD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/7rSQzu0sx9 https://t.co/5mmTfs00lT
US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Bounce Runs into Resistance

US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Bounce Runs into Resistance

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

US Dollar Price Outlook Talking Points:

US Dollar Bounce from Confluent Support Runs into Short-Term Resistance

The US Dollar continues to move-higher in an almost begrudging fashion. Last week saw a big area of support come into play when the Dollar collapse ran into a Fibonacci level at 96.47. Also of note was the 200-day moving average in the same area, marking this as a confluent spot on the chart. But, after a quick gap-up to start this week’s trade, buyers have continued to push, bringing prices up to another area on the chart that carries a bit of confluence, albeit of a shorter-term variety, and this runs around the 97.00 level on DXY. This is the May swing-low as well as the 50% retracement of the March-April bullish run in the Greenback; and also the 38.2% retracement of the 2019 major move.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

us dollar usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

With retail sales on the calendar for tomorrow and the FOMC rate decision on the docket for next week, the big focus appears to be on whether the Dollar can push through the confluent support that came into play last week. If the US Dollar is able to further breakdown, this brings attention to topside setups in pairs like EURUSD or perhaps even GBPUSD as shorts get further squeezed as a new theme gets priced-in around USD. On the other hand, should recovery continue, bullish potential remains in pairs like USDCAD, or bearish potential in a pair like AUDUSD which has hurriedly pushed back down to the lows as this week’s USD bounce has extended.

AUDUSD Push Down to .6900 as USD Holds Support

Coming into this week, I had looked at the short-side of AUDUSD, largely looking to capitalize on a support bounce in the Greenback but supported by the resistance inflection that had already shown in AUDUSD. The pair has now pushed down through the first target and is finding a bit of support; but this does highlight the potential for another run at the lows after last week’s bounce and ‘rate hike rally’ in the Aussie gets further priced-out.

At this point, traders can look for resistance in the prior support zone that runs from .6940-.6960.

AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

audusd aud/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCAD Recovers After Test of Three-Month-Lows

Similarly, I looked at topside potential in USDCAD should the pair hold support around the 1.3250 psychological level. And after a quick run on that support after this week’s open, buyers held the bid and prices started to bounce. At this stage, a shorter-term pullback has developed in that bounce, with a bit of short-term support offered around the 1.3300 handle. This can keep the door open for short-term topside trend potential into the zone of prior support that runs from 1.3361-1.3385.

USDCAD Two-Hour Price Chart

usdcad two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD Posturing Above Support Potential

Given the aggressiveness of last week’s USD-weakness, trading for continuation wasn’t expected to be simple. In EURUSD, I had looked at this in this week’s FX Setups, attempting to avoid chasing the move-higher while re-incorporating a prior zone of resistance as potential higher-low support. This zone runs from 1.1248-1.1265 and, hasn’t yet been tested this week. There has been some development of support around the 1.1290-area but that doesn’t look attractive enough to stage bullish approaches off of; particularly considering the fact that stops would be more than 100 pips if looking to get risk levels below last week’s NFP swing-low in EURUSD.

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBPUSD Ranges in Key Zone

A similar albeit less-developed theme has shown in GBPUSD. The month of May was absolutely brutal for the British Pound, and bears remained in control for much of the period. But, late in the month a big zone of support came into play that’s rarely been tested, and prices have held the line ever since. The big difference here from the Euro is the fact that the bounce has been far more subdued, thereby making the pair a bit less attractive for USD-weakness themes. But, nonetheless, buyers are holding support despite the fact that they’ve been unable to break-up to a fresh higher-high. If this does take place, however, the door can soon open to topside setups looking for a deeper retracement of May losses. A break-above 1.2763 in GBPUSD can begin to open the door for such scenarios.

GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES