We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0958 S2: 1.0983 S1: 1.0996 R1: 1.1021 R2: 1.1033 R3: 1.1058 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @DeItaOne: FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR POWELL SAYS U.S. TRADE TENSIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MANUFACTURING RECESSION THIS YEAR
  • The 2s10s US yield curve (spread between the 2 and 10 year Treasury Yield) is at 23.273, down from it's recent high of 27.417 on October 12th https://t.co/xoew9EPxK9
  • The Dow's past 9-day trading range is the smallest on a historical basis since Jan 2, 2018. Holiday-level conditions. Perfect time for a catalyst... https://t.co/m3TLnI7X3P
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.38% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.24% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.19% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.47% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/M9CEfeQetJ
  • Waiting for the Section 232 auto tariff decision due today like... https://t.co/9K58s23VcT
  • RT @FxWestwater: Powell, Fed Officials Highlight US Economy, Debt & Repo Strains Get your market update @DailyFX #FOMC $DXY #USD #Fed…
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.53% Silver: 0.35% Oil - US Crude: 0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/7C3JtRpJc2
  • Fed Funds Futures are pricing a 7.7% probability for a rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting, down from 57.7% on October 3rd https://t.co/0YSVotzeMk
  • RT @ZabelinDimitri: - #USDBRL reaching edging closer to retesting 14-month high - Recent price action suggesting upside momentum is waning…
US Dollar Steadies as May FOMC Minutes Detail "Patient" Approach

US Dollar Steadies as May FOMC Minutes Detail "Patient" Approach

2019-05-22 18:05:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

FOMC Minutes Talking Points

  • The May FOMC minutes detailed a reserved conversation among policymakers who believed that patience on rates would be appropriate for the foreseeable future.
  • Many FOMC members saw the early-2019 dip in inflation readings as “transitory.”
  • Rates markets show a small dip in 2019 rate cut odds relative to where they stood prior to the May FOMC minutes release.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The May Fed meeting minutes suggest that policymakers will be keeping interest rates at their current level for the foreseeable future. The May FOMC minutes echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark at the May Fed meeting press conference that the slowdown in inflation was “transitory” and not “persistent.” It’s worth noting that US inflation expectations have subsided in the weeks since the May Fed meeting.

In accordance with the FOMC’s neutral view, the minutes noted that members observed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely remain appropriate for some time. Earlier this year, the March Summary of Economic Projections’ dot plot suggested that FOMC members did not believe rates would move for the rest of 2019, before one 25-bps rate hike in 2020.

Fed Funds Futures Rate Expectations (May 22, 2019) (Table 1)

fed rate expectations, usd rate expectations, federal reserve rate cut odds, fed rate cut odds, fed rate hike odds

Following the May FOMC minutes, Fed funds futures were pricing in 69% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by the end of 2019 – barely lower than the 70% odds seen prior to the release.

DXY Index Technical Analysis: 1-minute Price Chart (May 22, 2019 Intraday) (Chart 1)

dxy price forecast, dxy technical analysis, dxy price chart, dxy chart, dxy price, usd price forecast, usd technical analysis, usd price chart, usd chart, usd price

Following the release of the May FOMC minutes, the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) gyrated higher and lower, but ultimately steadied around levels seen prior to 14 EDT/18 GMT. Ahead of the release, the DXY Index was trading at 98.02, which is where it was last seen at the time this note was written.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.