We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/rCOG78QQ2M
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/JmZxckVHdS
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY #UKelection2019 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/07/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-GBPCAD-Outlook-as-UK-Election-Looms.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/iuILHYczJ7
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/WlEFlluGfZ #tradingstyle https://t.co/TkMtJQKatx
  • By issuing debt denominated in $USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/xV9urXXf48
  • What are some risk trading management techniques? Find out: https://t.co/RShdlDz9RA #tradingstyle https://t.co/M3ASPIHAep
  • #Dow Jones stages impressive recovery on a firm NFP report. #FTSE 100 eyes UK general election. Get your equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/o28UcG6N3l https://t.co/SwGAaFCFND
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/f4y1FOOZnM #tradingstyle https://t.co/x5HgYopWc5
  • The USD may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/XnDITaDOox https://t.co/A480uVMqF2
EURUSD Climb in Question as US Dollar Drop Finds Fibonacci Support

EURUSD Climb in Question as US Dollar Drop Finds Fibonacci Support

2019-03-14 13:30:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
Share:

EURUSD, US Dollar Talking Points:

- The US Dollar pullback has found some element of support around 96.47, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011-2017 major move in DXY. This level has had various roles in US Dollar price action over the past seven months, and this support inflection comes after the US Dollar found resistance at a big level last week. The price of 97.71 has now held three different bullish advances over the past two quarters, showing in November, December and then again last Friday.

- EURUSD put in a precipitous drop around last week’s ECB rate decision, which had helped the US Dollar’s incline to resistance. But as looked at in last Thursday’s webinar, that break of range support in EURUSD soon found support at another Fibonacci level at 1.1187, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2017-2018 bullish move in the pair. Since then, its been largely a one-way show with buyers pushing higher-highs and higher-lows. But with a bit of turbulence now showing, are markets on the cusp of another short-side swing in the Euro? Or will EURUSD buyers be able to continue pushing up to prior range resistance that runs from 1.1448-1.1500?

- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

US Dollar Bounces From Fibonacci Support at 96.47

The four-day drop in the US Dollar has finally found some element of support around the 96.47 Fibonacci level that’s been in-play in various ways over the past seven months. This is the same level that had helped to elicit resistance in the Greenback in August of last year. This same level also became an area of support in December, resistance in January and here in March, support again. This is the 23.6% retracement of the 2011-2017 major move in DXY.

This presents an interesting backdrop for US Dollar bulls as prices have been working within the confines of an ascending triangle formation, taking the higher-lows that have been showing since September along with the horizontal resistance that’s built around 97.71 since November. This formation will often be approached with the aim of bullish breakouts, targeting fresh highs; and given the recent action of the ECB announcing a fresh round of stimulus, the fundamental backdrop appears as though it could be supportive of such a scenario.

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart

us dollar usd weekly price chart

On a short-term basis, the big question is whether this support holds into another bullish run in the US Dollar, as the 97.71 level looms ominously above. That price has elicited three rather strong cases of resistance, in November, December and again last Friday. On the way up, buyers would have to encounter potential turbulence or resistance around the 97.00 level, which had failed to hold this week’s lows, followed by the 97.20-97.30 area that’s elicited a few different resistance inflections in mid-February and again on Tuesday of this week.

Below current price action, the 96.30 level remains of interest for support, followed by the zone around the 96.00 area, after which the trend-line connecting the September, 2018 and January 2019 lows comes into play.

US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar usd eight hour price chart

EURUSD Incline Pulls Back: Range Fill or Bearish Drive?

Last Thursday produced an outsized bearish move in EURUSD as the European Central Bank announced a fresh round of TLTRO’s. And prices breached the under-side of a range formation that had been in play for the prior four months. But – as looked at in last Thursday’s webinar, that short-side move found support at an interesting spot just a little bit-lower on the chart around 1.1187, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2017-2018 bullish uptrend in the pair.

Since that support has come into play, it’s been largely a one-way show in EURUSD as buyers have pushed prices back above the support-side of that prior range.

The result of what happens here will likely be visible through the above scenario in DXY: If EURUSD buyers are able to stage a greater campaign of strength, the US Dollar pullback will likely continue, and that opens the door to re-tests of 96.30 or 96.04. If, on the other hand, EURUSD bears are ready to re-test last week’s lows, the 97.71 level in DXY will likely be in full view and a topside breakout there could lead to further declines in EURUSD, perhaps testing as deep as the 1.1000 psychological level.

EURUSD Hourly Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.