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Gold, Oil Test Key Resistance as the US Dollar Pullback Continues

Gold, Oil Test Key Resistance as the US Dollar Pullback Continues

2019-03-13 14:00:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
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Gold, Oil, US Dollar Talking Points:

- It’s been a comeback type of week so far as all of the Euro, Gold and Oil have pulled back from prior bearish themes, aided in part by a continued pullback in the US Dollar after a big level of resistance came into play last Thursday. Will each of these remain as pullback themes as part of bigger-picture trends? Or, are we on the cusp of some fresh trends forming with further downside potential in Gold and EURUSD, and perhaps even Oil?

- The risk-on rally in US equities this week comes back into full view as the S&P 500 has re-engaged with resistance around the 2800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lags that theme, largely due to setbacks at Boeing, which appear to be problematic with some of the reports flowing out on the matter. This can create an interesting backdrop for traders looking to take stances on US equities plays, with long S&P and short Dow themes allowing the trader to work with either direction (or perhaps even both) that US equities might take.

- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

EURUSD Re-Tests 1.1300 as the US Dollar Pullback Continues

It’s been a pullback type of week so far across FX as two major themes have seen a bit of tempering after last week’s outsized moves. In the latter-portion of last week, the US Dollar re-tested the 97.71 level that had already twice turned-around bullish advances in Q4 of last year. Buyers were unable to make much ground above this price, and the US Dollar has been pulling back ever since. In a related-move, the EURUSD short-side theme from last week, which was fueled by the ECB rate decision on Thursday has also pulled back, with prices buoying off of the 61.8% retracement of the 2017-2018 bullish move. Both levels were looked at in Thursday’s webinar and almost a week later, they remain as key areas on each respective chart.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart: 2018 Resistance Helps to Hold 2019 Highs

US Dollar usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On the support side of the US Dollar, the currency is already testing through the 97.00 area that had previously offered resistance ahead of last week’s ECB-fueled breakout. A bit-lower, around 96.68 is another area of interest, with 96.47, 96.30 and 96.04 each offering some price action potential, as well.

US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart

us dollar usd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

In the Euro, the big question is whether sellers show-up after last week’s ECB announcement, and this will likely have some pull with the above theme in the US Dollar. With the ECB announcing a fresh round of TLTRO’s, the currency posed a brief break of the support-side of the range that’s been in-play for almost four months. But – as looked at in Thursday’s webinar, that short-side move had a case for support just underneath that range, taken from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 bullish move in the pair. That price has since held, and buyers have been back in a rather consistent manner over the past few trading days.

EURUSD Two-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

If EURUSD bulls are able to break above 1.1300, there are a few areas of interest for bears to investigate for lower-high resistance potential; and if those levels don’t hold the highs, there may be a re-emergence of the range theme after last week’s brief break of support. The area around 1.1325 remains of interest, and above that the next level would be 1.1400. If buyers are able to push through there, then the longer-term resistance zone from that range formation comes into view from 1.1448-1.1500.

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Gold Prices Bounce From Support, Test Resistance at Prior Support

Last week’s rush of US Dollar strength helped Gold prices to push down to a key area of support that runs from 1276-1285.80, which is the same zone that had helped to hold the late-January lows. And so far this week, buyers have returned with gusto to bring a clean bullish push back-up to a prior zone of support that runs from 1302-1310.53.

Gold Two-Hour Price Chart

gold price two hour chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

The big question at this point is whether bulls can continue to push to bring back that previously bullish trend. Gold prices had topped out a few weeks ago at 1346.75, just shy of a longer-term zone of resistance that starts around the 1355 area. This is the same zone that held the highs through multiple attempts in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Gold Daily Price Chart

gold price daily chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

US Oil Re-Tests Resistance: Third Time the Charm?

Two weeks ago WTI Crude Oil tested a big level on the chart at which point prices began to reverse. The price is 57.47, and this is the 38.2% retracement of the 2016-2018 major move. This is the same level that had helped to hold the highs since February, marking the beginning of a zone that runs up to the 57.85 level that serves as the four-month high. As looked at in the webinar at the time resistance was beginning to show, the door was soon opening to range themes with focus on the 55-level for support. Support came into play last Friday, and since then buyers have come back to the table to pose another topside push up to that key area of resistance.

The big question: Can bulls break through on this third attempt? Or will resistance remain strong enough to hold the highs for now, re-opening the door for another test of the 55-level?

WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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