News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Notice

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.11% Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.04% FTSE 100: -0.20% Wall Street: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/LWPqo8wqu6
  • J&J to proactively delay rollout of vaccine in Europe. $EUR
  • BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane To Step Down From The MPC After The June Meeting $GBP
  • #Bitcoin rose to a fresh all time high this morning around the 63,000 level, breaking above the previous high set around 62,000 in mid March. $BTC https://t.co/sj1fjZb1iw
  • US 10yr Treasury yields and the US Dollar have both headed lower in the immediate aftermath of the CPI print. The $DXY dropped from 92.26 to around the 92.10 level and 10yr yields stepped back from above 1.68% to 1.66%. $USD https://t.co/RFiMWfNckX
  • 🇺🇸 Core Inflation Rate MoM (MAR) Actual: 0.3% Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • 🇺🇸 Inflation Rate MoM (MAR) Actual: 0.6% Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • 🇺🇸 Inflation Rate YoY (MAR) Actual: 2.6% Expected: 2.5% Previous: 1.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • 🇺🇸 Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAR) Actual: 1.6% Expected: 1.5% Previous: 1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.49%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 75.73%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/onTWQ83wu0
USD Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast

USD Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Dollar Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast
  • Euro Finds Too Little Traction, Too Late
  • Yen Crosses Advance after BoJ Downgrades Growth Assessment

Dollar Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast

A drain in liquidity often translates into a moderation in heavy exposure or one-sided trades. Yet, the approach of this week’s holiday drain has yet to turn the Dollar around. Though its progress has slowed compared to last Wednesday’s jump, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) still managed to scrounge its highest close since March 2009. Concerns over what is lies in store for the financial markets come 2015 – a continued emerging market route, more severe global economic headwinds and perhaps even the long-awaited unwinding of ‘excessively risky positions – no doubt contribute a sense of potential. But, the proactive theme for the currency remains its monetary policy bearings. Last week, the Fed only deepened the market’s belief that the USD will return to a hawkish rate regime well before its counterparts. Dropping the ‘considerable time’ language from its policy statement, the Central Bank lit the fuse for a six-month time frame the market had attributed to the language.

The contrast of the FOMC’s bearings is so significant compared to counterparts like the ECB, BoJ and PBoC that the anticipation of a return to tightening overrides the negative implications of the downgraded forecasts for interest rates through 2015 and 2016 – from 1.375 and 2.875 percent to 1.125 and 2.50 percent respectively. Looking at Fed Funds and Eurodollar futures, we could see that the market was already pricing in this moderation. What’s more, investors are still discounting the central bank’s more conservative views by another 50 and 93 bps. As we close in on that first move, that skepticism will ease and the Greenback will benefit. We will see this picture clear up significantly moving into the opening months of 2015, but we will find plenty of speculation on this side of the year-end drain. On Tuesday’s docket, we have plenty of event risk due; but the data with monetary policy weight is the November PCE (the Fed’s favored inflation statistics) and the Treasury’s auctions. The market-favored CPI reading last week cooled to 1.3 percent, and the annual PCE clip is expected to hit 1.2. That sets a low bar to impress on. As for auctions, a five-year fixed and two-year floating-rate note sale is perfect for measuring market rate expectations – similar to the two-year sale Monday which offered up the highest yield since March 2011.

Euro Finds Too Little Traction, Too Late

The Euro opened the week with gains against most counterparts – though progress was tepid at best. For key pairs like EURUSD and EURGBP, we are within stone’s throw of setting new multi-year lows. For data, the Eurozone’s consumer sentiment survey for December offered much-needed relief with a better than expected -10.9 reading. However, put in context, there is little relief to be found here in growth, monetary policy or financial tension expectations. The ECB’s balance sheet still refuses to budge in the aftermath of its most recent stimulus upgrade (adding asset-backed securities to its open purchases of covered bonds). If the central bank considers its €1 trillion balance sheet increase a necessary objective for growth and stability, a full-scale QE program is far more likely. And to that growing concerns over the capital flow should risk aversion strike and renewed tension for fiscal players like Greece, and there is too much at risk moving forward.

Yen Crosses Advance after BoJ Downgrades Growth Assessment

The Yen crosses were the best performers amongst the majors Monday. A continued recovery effort by Asian, European and US stocks saw the S&P 500 close at a fresh record high. This in turn, reinvigorated the ‘status quo’ theme and drew out the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ believers. As with the Dollar bulls, the ‘risk’ longs are refusing to reduce their exposure into the week’s speculative rebalance. Here too, monetary policy places a strong back brace. Following Abe’s election win last week, the BoJ’s economic statement Monday dimmed its view and raised the lights on QE.

British Pound Data: A Lot of Smoke, Little Fire

There is plenty of scheduled event risk on the UK docket this session. Yet, its quality in terms of market impact is very lacking. Final third quarter readings on GDP will offer little in the way of update for what truly matters for the pound – rate forecasts. The November BBA home loans will sharpen a blurrier image, but it is unlikely to single-handedly move up short-sterling speculation of the first hike before September.

Australian Dollar Faces a ‘Necessary Break’

We often find markets put in a position of a ‘necessary break’ – a diminishing range that inevitably runs out of room. A technical cue like this can sometimes lead to a new trend development. Yet, it is unusual when it lacks a fundamental backing in the form of a discreet catalyst. It is further extremely unlikely when the market is making preparations for a full liquidity withdrawal.

Emerging Markets: Year-End Liquidity Drain May be a Blessing

According to the MSCI’s ETF, Emerging Markets closed up for a fourth consecutive day through Monday’s close. A fading volume does little to truly engage confidence though. Given the high volatility of this market group, moderation on the extreme bearish view seems more readily available. Though, for the class’s recent symbolic leader – Russia – it would be extremely risky to grow complacent on its hazards.

Gold Sees Little Year-End Demand from Metal Speculators or Doomsday Bearers

Year-end optimism in capital markets, a hawkish view for the Fed (and more moderate dovish pace projected for ECB stimulus), and persistent Dollar advance combined for another 1.7 percent drop for gold this past session. Gold is a haven that requires more dedication – and capital exposure – than cheap hedges for unexpected volatility through liquidity lulls. That will work against the metal for the next few weeks.

**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NOV)

-575M

-908M

21:45

NZD

Exports (NOV)

4.03B

4.03B

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 YoY (NOV)

5.50%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (NOV)

7:45

EUR

France GDP QoQ (3Q F)

0.30%

0.30%

7:45

EUR

France GDP YoY (3Q F)

0.40%

0.40%

7:45

EUR

France Consumer Spending YoY (NOV)

-0.70%

-0.20%

7:45

EUR

France PPI YoY (NOV)

-1.40%

9:00

EUR

Italy Retail Sales MoM (OCT)

-0.10%

9:00

EUR

Italy Retail Sales YoY (OCT)

-0.50%

9:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (NOV)

36400

37076

9:30

GBP

GDP QoQ (3Q F)

0.70%

0.70%

9:30

GBP

GDP YoY (3Q F)

3.00%

3.00%

9:30

GBP

Current Account Balance (3Q)

-23.2B

-23.1B

9:30

GBP

Total Business Investment QoQ (3Q F)

-0.70%

-0.70%

13:30

CAD

GDP MoM (OCT)

0.10%

0.40%

13:30

CAD

GDP YoY (OCT)

2.10%

2.30%

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (NOV)

3.00%

0.40%

13:30

USD

Durables Ex Transportation (NOV)

1.00%

-0.90%

13:30

USD

GDP Annualized QoQ (3Q T)

4.30%

3.90%

14:00

USD

FHFA House Price Index MoM (OCT)

0.30%

0.00%

14:55

USD

Univ. of Michigan Confidence (DEC F)

93.5

93.8

15:00

USD

New Home Sales (NOV)

460K

458K

15:00

USD

New Home Sales MoM (NOV)

0.40%

0.70%

15:00

USD

Personal Income (NOV)

0.40%

0.20%

15:00

USD

Personal Spending (NOV)

0.50%

0.20%

15:00

USD

PCE Deflator MoM (NOV)

-0.20%

0.10%

15:00

USD

PCE Deflator YoY (NOV)

1.20%

1.40%

15:00

USD

PCE Core YoY (NOV)

1.50%

1.60%

23:00

AUD

Conf. Board Leading Index MoM (OCT)

-0.30%

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

16:30

USD

US to Sell $13 Bln in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes

18:00

USD

US to Sell $35 Bln in 5-Year Notes

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

14.0100

2.3800

12.7000

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

7.5800

6.1750

7.2900

Resist 1

13.6800

2.3000

11.8750

7.8075

1.3250

Resist 1

7.5000

6.0900

7.0000

Spot

13.5823

2.2315

11.1048

7.7548

1.2974

Spot

7.4186

5.9681

6.7772

Support 1

13.0300

2.0700

10.2500

7.7490

1.2000

Support 1

6.7750

5.8000

6.3145

Support 2

12.8350

1.7500

9.3700

7.7450

1.1800

Support 2

6.0800

5.7300

6.1300

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\CCY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

Gold

Res 3

1.2573

1.5766

117.89

0.9723

1.1367

0.8812

0.8030

146.88

1214.79

Res 2

1.2548

1.5738

117.55

0.9700

1.1347

0.8790

0.8008

146.50

1207.54

Res 1

1.2523

1.5709

117.21

0.9677

1.1327

0.8769

0.7986

146.12

1200.28

Spot

1.2473

1.5652

116.54

0.9632

1.1286

0.8726

0.7943

145.36

1185.78

Supp 1

1.2423

1.5595

115.87

0.9587

1.1245

0.8683

0.7900

144.60

1171.28

Supp 2

1.2398

1.5566

115.53

0.9564

1.1225

0.8662

0.7878

144.22

1164.02

Supp 3

1.2373

1.5538

115.19

0.9541

1.1205

0.8640

0.7856

143.84

1156.77

v

--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES