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FOREX: Euro Tumbles as Norway Suspends Aid to Greece, Fitch Downgrades Further

FOREX: Euro Tumbles as Norway Suspends Aid to Greece, Fitch Downgrades Further

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US Dollar bounces as Dow Jones sells off, Greek Bond Yields Surge

The US Dollar was firmer at the close of trade today as stocks slumped and commodities advanced across the board. With no economic data of note, the dollar remained range bound throughout the session. Concerns over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe once again made headlines after ECB officials cited they will not accept Greek debt as collateral if the nation were to restructure. Consequently, the euro snapped a 5-day advance, giving lift to the dollar and the Swissie as traders squared risk positions ahead of the weekend.

Looking ahead, the dollar may continue to benefit from weakness in the euro as sentiment sways against the 16-nation bloc. Although the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index remained above key support at 9600, it has maintained a descending channel dating back to the start of the week. Economic data picks up again on Tuesday when traders get another update on the housing market with the April new homes sales data, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

Related:Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum

Euro Tumbles as Norway Suspends Aid to Greece, Fitch Downgrades Ratings

The Euro fell sharply against the US Dollar for the first day in four, sunk by news that Norway suspended financial aid to Greece and aggressive debt downgrades from Fitch. The Norwegian government cited Greece’s failure to comply with agreed-upon conditions to aid in withholding a $42 million grant from the debt-stricken country. The move was largely symbolic given that it represents such a relatively small proportion of fiscal aid, but traders speculated that growing discontent with Greek debt troubles could push Finland to do the same.

Further compounding worries, Fitch ratings downgraded Greece’s long-term rating to B-plus from BB-plus and warned that continued downgrades were likely if the EU and IMF did not produce a credible plan to resolve the country’s debt crisis. Developments were enough to push Greek government bond yields to further usurious highs, and the spread against the benchmark German Bund likewise hit record size.

Focus remains on whether Greece will need to restructure its debt and/or whether a fresh wave of EU bailouts is likely. It will be critical to watch official commentary through the coming week and, in the shorter-term, European Purchasing Managers Index figures due Monday.

Japanese Yen Drifts After Tapping 3 ½ week Low

The yen was virtually flat at the close of North American trade after a quiet day of choppy trading in New York. The yen continues to be weighed down after a GDP report earlier in the week confirming the nation’s slide back into recession, with Japanese officials unwilling to increase the level of economic stimulus citing that the largest problem facing the economy is supply chain disruptions.

The USD/JPY pair continues to straddle the 23.3% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 16th and May 5th troughs at 81.65. The ascending channel noted throughout this week remains intact, noting interim resistance at 81.80 and 82.20. Support rests lower at 81.50 and 81.30.

New Zealand Dollar’s Advance Slows Ahead of Key Support

The New Zealand dollar advanced for a fourth consecutive day against the greenback today, coming within striking distance of the 0.80-handle. Supporting the kiwi was a government projection that called for the nation return to an operational trade surplus by June 2015. Coupled with stronger commodity prices, the kiwi advanced on improving prospects for the Pacific region, with the NZD/USD pair closing out the session 0.70% higher against the dollar.

Next week’s kiwi calendar sees no data, save the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Q2 inflation report on Monday. With concerns in Europe once again taking center stage, the pair will become increasingly vulnerable to shifts in risk appetite as sentiment continues to seesaw.

Australian Dollar Bounces on Gold Price Breakout

The Australian Dollar bounced off of noteworthy intraday lows on a bounce in gold prices, keeping the AUDUSD’s correlation to commodity prices strongly intact. The high-yielding antipodean currency had initially fallen to the bottom of its multi-day range on sell-offs in ‘risk’. Yet gold spot prices lent a hand in breaking above a closely-watched consolidative range, and short-term risks arguably remain weighed to the topside ahead of Sunday’s open.

A week devoid of any real economic event risk leaves the Aussie dollar to trade off of moves in commodity markets and broader ‘risk’. Given market stresses surrounding Greece and euro zone troubles, uncertainty remains high and major currencies have stuck to relatively tight trading ranges. It will be important to watch whether the first trading session of the week sets the pace for later price action.

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

2:30

CNY

HSBC PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

51.8

Tightening may hurt production

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (MAR)

99.5

March indices seen to have been negatively impacted by earthquake

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (MAR)

103.6

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)

0.3%

May indicate return to consumption

7:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

7.1%

Expected to be buoyed by low rates

7:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

57.0

57.5

German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI returning to pre-recession highs, may indicate sooner ECB tightening before summer. However, lower expected data may drop Euro strength

7:00

EUR

French PMI Services (MAY)

62.0

62.9

7:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

61.1

62

7:30

EUR

German PMI Services (MAY)

57.0

56.8

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

57.5

58

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY)

56.8

56.7

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY)

57.4

57.8

8:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. (MAY)

103.4

103.7

Fallen since Dec 2009 high

12:30

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (APR)

0.26

May be impacted by weaker industry

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

8:50

EUR

ECB's Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks on European Economy

9:30

EUR

ECB's Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez Speaks on European Economy

13:00

EUR

ECB's Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Speaks on European Economy

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - 18:00 GMT

Currency

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Resist 2

1.5160

1.6750

89.00

0.9345

1.0275

1.1800

0.8400

117.60

146.05

Resist 1

1.5000

1.6600

86.00

0.8900

1.0000

1.1000

0.8215

117.24

140.00

Spot

1.4161

1.6229

81.70

0.8774

0.9742

1.0660

0.7960

115.69

132.60

Support 1

1.4000

1.6160

80.00

0.8600

0.9500

1.0400

0.7745

113.80

125.00

Support 2

1.3700

1.5750

75.00

0.8500

0.9055

1.0200

0.6850

105.50

119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

13.8500

1.6575

7.4025

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

7.5800

5.6625

6.1150

Resist 1

12.5000

1.6300

7.3500

7.8075

1.3250

Resist 1

6.5175

5.3100

5.7075

Spot

11.6473

1.5860

6.9147

7.7743

1.2384

Spot

6.3083

5.2674

5.5475

Support 1

11.5200

1.5040

6.5575

7.7490

1.2145

Support 1

6.0800

5.1050

5.3040

Support 2

11.4400

1.4725

6.4295

7.7450

1.2000

Support 2

5.8085

4.9115

4.9410

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Resist. 3

1.4345

1.6390

82.62

0.8881

0.9838

1.0804

0.8069

117.48

134.52

Resist. 2

1.4299

1.6350

82.39

0.8854

0.9814

1.0768

0.8042

117.03

134.04

Resist. 1

1.4253

1.6309

82.16

0.8828

0.9790

1.0732

0.8015

116.59

133.56

Spot

1.4161

1.6229

81.70

0.8774

0.9742

1.0660

0.7960

115.69

132.60

Support 1

1.4069

1.6149

81.24

0.8720

0.9694

1.0588

0.7905

114.79

131.64

Support 2

1.4023

1.6108

81.01

0.8694

0.9670

1.0552

0.7878

114.35

131.16

Support 3

1.3977

1.6068

80.78

0.8667

0.9646

1.0516

0.7851

113.90

130.68

v

Written by: David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist and Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To receive this report via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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