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EUR Back at Resistance on Italian Budget Deal, CAD Inflation Drops  - US Market Open

EUR Back at Resistance on Italian Budget Deal, CAD Inflation Drops - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Strategist

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – EUR Back at Resistance on Italian Budget Deal, USD Awaits Fed

EUR: The Euro is outperforming this morning following reports that Italy and the EU had reached an agreement on the 2019 budget with the EU deciding to not go ahead with the excessive debt procedure. However, once again EURUSD has failed to maintain a foothold above the 1.14 handle. Eyes will be on the Federal Reserve rate decision where markets are pricing in a dovish rate hike.

USD: Another day, another drop in the US Dollar against its major counterparts. Focus is on the Federal Reserve rate decision where it is expected that Powell and Co. will raise rates for a fourth time this year. However, much of the attention will be placed on the accompanying statement and the dot plot projections. Expectations are for the Fed to drop language surrounding further gradual increases and instead place emphasis on data dependence, while the dot plot projection may signal 2 2019 rate hikes from 3 previously.

CAD: The Canadian Dollar is relatively flat and somewhat unfazed by the softer inflation report. As expected, headline inflation saw a sizeable drop given the plunge in oil prices and thus missed market expectations. Alongside this, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core metric dropped to 1.9% from 2.0%, consequently, keeping the outlook bleak for the Canadian Dollar. Market reaction had been somewhat tame given that the drop-in inflation had largely been expected with the BoC stating that they see downside risks to inflation in the foreseeable future. While investors are also awaiting the release of the Fed rate decision.

EUR Back at Resistance on Italian Budget Deal, CAD Inflation Drops  - US Market Open

Data as of 1345GMT

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, December 19, 2018 – North American Releases

EUR Back at Resistance on Italian Budget Deal, CAD Inflation Drops  - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, December 19, 2018

EUR Back at Resistance on Italian Budget Deal, CAD Inflation Drops  - US Market Open

Four Things Traders are Reading

  1. CAD Vulnerable as Oil Plunge is Set to Drag Inflation Lower” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  2. Crude Oil Price: Brent Trying to Rebound from a 14-Month Lowby Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  3. EURUSD Price Rises Modestly as EU Reaches Italian Budget Deal” by Martin Essex, MSTA , Analyst and Editor
  4. Technical Outlook for Dow Jones, Copper, Crude Oil, Gold Price & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.