News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.16%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 63.74%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/qnPrjK4cau
  • The USD/CAD breakout is now approaching near-term uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the bulls may be vulnerable here. Get your $USDCAD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/Bdr4y9lTJv https://t.co/kjg9w2JkLq
  • US Equities Update (Wednesday Close): $DJI -1.92% $SPX -2.37% $NDX -3.16% $RUT -3.04% $VIX +7.86%
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.03% Wall Street: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.87% FTSE 100: -0.88% France 40: -0.89% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Je9EmV34kz
  • Looks like we got everyone's view on it: https://t.co/Y0zskurvsB
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 39.83 (+0.08%), ICE Brent Crude 41.69 (-0.07%), NYM NYH Gasoline 117.81 (+1.19%). [delayed]
  • Today's webinar recording if you missed it live - https://t.co/JyBaVkbzI8
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2020/09/23/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-USD-EUR-USD-EURUSD-GBP-USD-GBPUSD-AUD-USD-AUDUSD.html https://t.co/mXFX1rWAr0
  • Canadian #Dollar Outlook: $USDCAD Breakout Levels- Bull’s First Test - https://t.co/sDdpxq3Zxd https://t.co/mFLUeJ8sY2
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.05% Gold: -1.79% Silver: -5.98% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/wrmWnBAFaX
USD Dips as the Fed May Mull Pause on Rate Hike Cycle - US Market Open

USD Dips as the Fed May Mull Pause on Rate Hike Cycle - US Market Open

2018-11-21 14:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – USD DIPS AMID TALK OF FED LOOKING TO PAUSE RATE HIKE CYCLE

USD: The risk on sentiment has put a dent in the US Dollar, which is trading modestly lower against its major counterparts, particularly high beta FX currencies (AUD, NZD), with the exception of the Japanese Yen, which is underperforming. Alongside this, a report circulating that the Federal Reserve could consider pausing its rate hike cycle by spring has provided a further lift to equity markets, at the expense of the USD. That said, this comes in the context that recent commentary from Fed officials have been leaning on the more cautious side, which in turn has reigned in rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve. Latest FFR futures imply 56bps worth of tightening by the end of next year, compared to the Fed’s dot plot projection currently signalling 100bps. Elsewhere, another spring to the equity bounce has been provided by reports that China trade hawk, Peter Navarro, may be excluded from talks between President Trump and Xi at the upcoming G20 summit.

EUR: The Euro has been somewhat resilient despite the European Commission rejecting Italy’s budget. The EC also stated that disciplinary procedures should be adopted against Italy for excessive debt (what happens next). However, with rate hike expectations continuing to drop off, tighter spreads between the US and Core EU members has provided a lift for the Euro, which sits above the 1.14 handle. Eyes will be on tomorrow’s ECB meeting minutes.

Crude Oil: The 25-30% in major oil benchmarks has been praised by President Trump, who would also like to see even lower oil prices. However, given the near enough 6% drop in the oil complex yesterday, prices are seeing a modest lift, which has also been supported by yesterday’s API report, showing a surprise drawdown in US stockpiles. Oil traders will be looking for confirmation at today’s EIA report whereby a drop-in oil inventories would end the run of consecutive weekly stockpile increases (current streak is 8). Elsewhere, reports from the Kremlin noted that Russia were currently monitoring developments in the oil market and will meet with Saudi’s MBS at the G20 summit.

USD Dips as the Fed May Mull Pause on Rate Hike Cycle - US Market Open

Data as of 1325GMT

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, November 21, 2018 – North American Releases

USD Dips as the Fed May Mull Pause on Rate Hike Cycle - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, November 21, 2018

USD Dips as the Fed May Mull Pause on Rate Hike Cycle - US Market Open

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT EURUSD Chart of the Day

USD Dips as the Fed May Mull Pause on Rate Hike Cycle - US Market Open

EURUSD: Data shows 50.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.02 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.3% higher than yesterday and 15.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.0% lower than yesterday and 26.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. Crude Oil Analysis: Bearish Momentum to Continue Despite Short Term Lift” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  2. EURUSD Price Consolidating, More Gains Possibleby Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & Dow Charts Have Important Support Levels to Watch” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. Trading Forecast for S&P 500/Dow, DAX 30, Crude Oil, Gold Price & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. GBPUSD: Brexit Fears Remain as UK PM May Heads to Brussels” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES