We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @malkudsi: Natural Gas Eyes Pushing Higher as Support Holds - Nat Gas Technical Analysis More details in the link below: https://t.co/HG…
  • As prices dance around on charts, traders are often looking for reasons to explain price movements; however, the underlying source of price movement boils down to the relationship between supply and demand. Learn more about the forces of S&D on forex here: https://t.co/8LfkLXbj2W https://t.co/swcuwAMGAk
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/4adyTWvQ22
  • What are the Market cycles? How are #currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact #forextrading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/gLJGj1FAOC
  • Central bank independence has several advantages and disadvantages. Find out what they are in-depth with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/J0MMkVmCUu
  • Get your stock market basics right - what is the stock market and how does stock trading work? Find out here: https://t.co/JfAJLAtlsY https://t.co/ZfPUxHWeiG
  • The Mexican economy contracted for the first time in almost 10 years in 2019, but growth is expected to pick up in 2020 according to its finance minister. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/gupJdU7WYT https://t.co/mMN8LFb5i5
  • EUR/USD has been weakening since the start of 2020 and the decline has accelerated this month. At some point there will be a correction but further losses are still likely as the year progresses. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/ieJUBNeAIf https://t.co/Dw4f7DQocg
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
EUR Choppy as Merkel Begins Exit, Short Term Drivers Support USD - US Market Open

EUR Choppy as Merkel Begins Exit, Short Term Drivers Support USD - US Market Open

2018-10-29 13:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – EUR CHOPPY AS MERKEL BEGINS EXIT

EUR: A choppy session thus far for the Euro amid the latest newsflow surrounding German politics. After another poor performance for the CDU and SPD parties in the Hesse state election. German press reports noted that Chancellor Merkel was to step down from re-election for CDU party chair, which sparked selling the Euro. However, the Euro did nurse some losses as sources highlighted that Merkel was to complete her 4th term (ends in 2021). Euro fails to hold above 1.14 with resistance situated at 1.1430. On the downside, support sits at the YTD low (1.1301)

USD: Short term drivers in focus for the greenback this week with month-end rebalancing models suggesting strong buy signals for the US Dollar against its major counterparts. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve will let another slew of debt roll off on the 31st leading to a potential net negative liquidity, which typically supports the US Dollar. Consequently, the YTD highs (9660) could be tested.

BRL:The Brazilian Real had been notably firmer this morning after Jair Bolsonaro won the second round of the Brazilian election.However, the opening gains has been subsequently pared, given that the victory had been widely expected amid recent polling data.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, October 29, 2018 – North American Releases

EUR Choppy as Merkel Begins Exit, Short Term Drivers Support USD - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, October 29, 2018

EUR Choppy as Merkel Begins Exit, Short Term Drivers Support USD - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment: EURUSD Chart of the Day

EUR Choppy as Merkel Begins Exit, Short Term Drivers Support USD - US Market Open

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 63.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.74 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 01 when EURUSD traded near 1.16024; price has moved 1.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.8% lower than yesterday and 4.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.3% lower than yesterday and 19.9% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. UK Week Ahead: Brexit and the Bank of England | Webinar” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. Euro Forecast: After ECB, Downside in Focus as Italian Issues Festerby Christopher Vecchio, CFA , Sr. Currency Strategist
  3. CoT Update: Crude Oil Speculative Long Positioning to Keep Shrinkingby Paul Robinson , Market Analyst
  4. EURUSD Struggling to Stay Above 1.1400, Sentiment Negative” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  5. USD Outperformance on Merkel Exit, Fed QT and Month-End Rebalancing” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.