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CAD Slides as Saudi Arabia Sell Off Canadian Assets - US Market Open

CAD Slides as Saudi Arabia Sell Off Canadian Assets - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Check out the brand new DailyFX trading forecasts for Q3

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – GBP TUMBLES ON NO-DEAL BREXIT RISK

US equity futures are trading relatively flat as equities pull back from best levels after China announce retaliatory tariffs against $16bln worth of US imports, which will be implemented on August 23rd.

GBP: The Pound is the notable underperformer this morning with GBPUSD printing a fresh 2018 low having pushed through the 1.29 handle, while EURGBP is above the 0.90 and now trading at its highest level since November 2017. The latest selling in the GBP has come amid market participants repricing a no-deal Brexit. This has also been seen in the options market with buyers demands greater protection against GBP declines.

CAD: Sentiment around the Canadian Dollar has seen a notable deterioration over the past couple of days amid the escalating geo-political tensions between the Saudi Arabia and Canada. USDCAD briefly broke above 1.31 after reports from the FT that Saudi Arabia have instructed overseas asset managers to sell off their Canadian equity, bonds and cash holdings. This also follows on from recent reports that Saudi Arabia have frozen new trade and investment in Canada. Consequently, Canada has reached out to its allies to diffuse the situation, however, Canada’s closest ally, the US, are to remain on the side-lines. As such, USDCAD to remain elevated as tensions persist.

JPY: Overnight the Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions from its monetary policy meeting last week. One thing that was made apparent from the report was that a divide is beginning to show among board members amid disagreements on how far yields should be allowed to move from the central bank’s target. At the post-meeting, Governor Kuroda stated that long-term yields are to move at double the previous range of -0.1%-0.1%. However, one member stated that the BoJ should allow for yields to move by around 0.25%. Another board member had warned that by allowing yields to move when inflation expectations remain subdued could result in lower price growth.Following last week’s announcement, markets have pushed long-term bond yields to the highest level since 2016 as they test the BoJ’s new limit, which in turn has supported the Japanese Yen

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, August 7, 2018 – North American Releases

CAD Slides as Saudi Arabia Sell Off Canadian Assets - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, August 8, 2018

CAD Slides as Saudi Arabia Sell Off Canadian Assets - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDCAD Chart of the Day

CAD Slides as Saudi Arabia Sell Off Canadian Assets - US Market Open

USDCAD: Data shows 48.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.06 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.5% lower than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 17.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDCAD trading bias.

Four Things Traders are Reading

  1. DXY Index Holds Ground Beneath Resistance Despite New Tariffsby Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
  2. Bitcoin, Ether, Ripple - Prices Plunge, Sentiment Sours | Webinar" by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  3. Trading Outlook for USD/JPY, Yen-crosses, AUD/USD, Gold & Othersby Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. USDJPY Analysis: Bears Find Hope as BoJ Show Divide on QQE Measuresby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  5. EURGBP Analysis: Rally Continues as Brexit Fears Slam Sterling” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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