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USDTRY at Record High, Brexit to Dictate BoE Policy - US Market Open

USDTRY at Record High, Brexit to Dictate BoE Policy - US Market Open

2018-08-02 13:35:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – BOE RAISES RATES TO 0.75% ON SURPRISE 9-0 VOTE

The selloff observed in European markets have spilled off into US equity futures (DJIA -0.7%, Nasdaq 100 -0.8%, S&P 500 -0.8%) as trade war concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. Elsewhere, European equities have been hampered by soft earnings reports, most notably the DAX after the largest weighted stock, Siemens reported a miss on revenue.

GBP: As markets had expected the Bank of England hiked the bank rate by 25bps to 0.75%, however, what was unexpected was the vote split, which had surprised with a 9-0 vote (Exp. 7-2 vote). As such, this had provided an initial lift to the Pound, with GBPUSD rising 40pips to 1.3129. However, gains were quickly reversed with the BoE signalling no rush for the next rate hike given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, which the central bank noted that the Brexit responses could influence policy significantly. As such, the implied rates curves is relatively unchanged with another hike not fully priced in until September 2019. GBPUSD lows at 1.3017, however, with the selling now out the way and with Brexit leaning to the softer side, the near-term base at 1.30 will continue to hold.

USD: Renewed strength in the greenback amid the latest escalation in the US-China trade war saga. The US has seemingly adopted an “escalate to negotiate” tactic with the Trump administration threatening to place 25% tariffs on $200bln worth of Chinese goods instead of 10%. Consequently, this prompted a response from China who stated that they are prepared to retaliate, which in turn led to another selloff in global equities while the USD caught a bid.

TRY: The Turkish Lira at a fresh record low having finally weakened past the psychological 5.00 handle vs. the USD, after the US impose sanctions on two government ministers over the trial of a US pastor accused of backing terrorism. Eyes will be on whether Turkey begins to make steps to de-escalate the political tensions, which may provide some relief for the Lira

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, August 2, 2018 – North American Releases

USDTRY at Record High, Brexit to Dictate BoE Policy - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, August 2, 2018

USDTRY at Record High, Brexit to Dictate BoE Policy - US Market Open

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. GBP Up as BoE Raises Rates In Surprise Unanimous Vote, Dips on Rate Guidanceby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  2. GBP Slumping After ’One and Done’ BoE Rate Hike” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  3. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Chart Analysis – Price Sequences Favor More Sellingby Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. Global Equity Outlook: DAX Underperforms, S&P 500 at Critical Supportby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  5. US Dollar Charges Up to Resistance, GBP/USD Flails After BoE Rate Hikeby James Stanley, Currency Strategist

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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