News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 76.22%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 86.42%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uYbrSUoFuc
  • S&P 500, Nikkei 225 Outlook: Stocks Hit Record High as VIX Falls https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/14/SP-500-Nikkei-225-Outlook-Stocks-Hit-Record-High-as-VIX-Falls.html https://t.co/uJUmHoLgfL
  • Please join @IlyaSpivak at 22:00 EST/2:00 GMT for your cross-market weekly outlook webinar. Register here: https://t.co/E213bTtq5C https://t.co/0mnH4HOZU2
  • *Schedule Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar on Monday at 8:30am EST (12:30GMT) with DailyFX - https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H Mid-Week Market Update on Wednesday at 9:30am EST (13:30GMT) with IG - https://t.co/8SFBJxNZrA
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/kHnKrEkI2r
  • 8 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with 69.5% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Financials (+0.61%) and information technology (+0.56%) outperformed, while healthcare (-0.73%) and real estate (-0.59%) trailed behind. https://t.co/MiGE1XFknG
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/3US2UaRckO
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/z9XcfuxLOx
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/hQgZB9T73q
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10CKUR https://t.co/9JVh6BsWa2
RBA Preview: AUDUSD Vulnerable to 25bp Rate Cut, Dovish Guidance

RBA Preview: AUDUSD Vulnerable to 25bp Rate Cut, Dovish Guidance

David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may drag on AUD/USD as the central bank is expected to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 25bp to a fresh record-low of 0.75%.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Recent comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe suggest the central bank will take additional steps to insulate the economy as inflation is expected to “remain below the midpoint of the target range for some time to come,” and the central bank may carry its rate easing cycle into 2020 as “financial markets are pricing in further reductions in the cash rate over the next year.

In turn, a 25bp rate cut along with a dovish forward guidance may produce a bearish reaction in AUD/USD as the Federal Reserveappears to be taking a more patient approach in managing monetary policy.

However, the RBA may stick to the sidelines amid “signs of a turnaround in established housing markets,” and more of the same from Governor Lowe and Co. may spark a bullish reaction in the Australia Dollar as market participants scale back bets for additional monetary support.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

Impact that the RBA interest rate decision had on AUD/USD during the last meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP

2019

09/03/2019 04:30:00 GMT

1.00%

1.00%

+20

+65

September 2019Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of audusd 5-minute chart

Source: Trading View

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.00% in September, and it seems as though the central bank will stick to the sidelines after delivering back-to-back rate cuts as “recent labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.

However, the RBA continued to strike a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, with Governor Philip Lowe and Co. pledging to “ease monetary policy further if needed” amid the weakening outlook for global growth.

The Australian Dollar gained ground following the RBA meeting, with AUD/USD climbing above the 0.6700 handle to close the day at 0.6759. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the AUDUSD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.6991), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in July.
  • More recently, the rebound from the September-low (0.6688) appears to sputtered ahead of the 0.6910 (38.2% expansion) region, with the exchange rate at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior as it struggles to hold above the 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) handle.
  • As a result, the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6730 (100% expansion) remains on the radar, with a break of the 2019-low (0.6677) raising the risk for a move towards 0.6620 (100% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES