Never miss a story from David Song

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to David Song

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Trading the News: German Unemployment Change

Unemployment in Germany is expected to hold flat after surging 60.0K in May, and a positive development may spark a bullish reaction in EURUSD as it instills an improved outlook for the Euro area.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of a resilient labor market may curb the recent decline un EURUSD as it dampens the threat for a recession, and the European Central Bank (ECB) may stick to the sidelines at the next meeting on July 25 as President Mario Draghi and Co. prepare to launch another round of Targeted Long-Term Refinance Operations (TLTRO) in September.

However, a further pickup in German unemployment may drag on EURUSD as it puts pressure on the ECB to implement a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) for the Main Refinance Rate, its flagship benchmark for borrowing costs.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

Impact that the German Unemployment report had on EUR/USD during the previous print


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



05/29/2019 07:55:00 GMT





May 2019 German Unemployment Change

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of eurusd 5-minute chart

Unemployment in Germany unexpectedly jumped 60K in May to mark the biggest rise since 2009. A deeper look at the report showed the jobless rate also widening during the same period, with gauge climbing to 5.0% from 4.9% in April.

The Euro was little changed despite the dismal data print, but EURUSD struggled to hold its ground during the North American trade, with the exchange rate closing the day at 1.1131.

Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EURUSD is no longer tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break out of the bearish formations from earlier this year.
  • In turn, EURUSD stands at risk for a larger correction as it breaks out of the range-bound price action from May following the failed attempt to test the 1.1000 (78.6% expansion) handle, with the exchange rate trading above the 200-Day SMA (1.1350) for the first time since in over a year.
  • However, the near-term advance in EURUSD appears to have stalled ahead of the March-high (1.1448) amid the string of failed attempts to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion).
  • In turn, a move below 1.1340 (38.2% expansion) raises the risk for a move back towards the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region, with the next area of interest coming in around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement).

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.