We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.16%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.96%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PYu9xhQXLN
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% France 40: 0.09% US 500: -0.01% Wall Street: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/8jftlGtYTv
  • Here is my scenario table for the #FOMC rate decision tomorrow. Will be covering it live if you want to come and join (starting 15mins before the decision): https://t.co/d6QBYyVd9N https://t.co/zZzdCwXMFa
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -2.00% #BITCOINCASH -1.14% #ETHEREUM -1.87% #RIPPLE -1.34% #LITECOIN -1.23%
  • RT @CVecchioFX: A question I frequently get asked these days is, "Is it realistic to believe that the US Dollar can lose its role in the gl…
  • LIVE NOW: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=1338844901231735299&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • US 10-Year Notes Draw 1.842% Primary Dealers Accepted: 24.5% Direct Bidders Accepted: 19.4% Indirect Bidders Accepted: 56.1% B/C Ratio: 2.43
  • ⬇️ Highly recommend my fellow volatility fiends give this article a read https://t.co/iQTNxAInvW
  • RT @HuXijin_GT: US Congress passed many China-related bills, China can't respond to all of them. The principle of Chinese government, as I…
  • here we go, starting right now -> https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/1338844901231735299?webinar=1338844901231735299&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/xx9H1CqID9
EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

2019-04-05 11:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the economy is anticipated to add 180K jobs in March.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of a robust labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to preserve a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘overall conditions remaining favorable,’ and the central bank may stick to the sidelines at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. pledge to ‘be patient in assessing the need for any change in the stance of policy.’

In turn, a print of 180K or greater may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar, but another below-forecast print may spark a short-term rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE to cover the U.S. NFP report.

Impact that the U.S. NFP report had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB

2019

03/08/2019 13:30:00 GMT

180K

20K

+10

+11

February 2019 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of eurusd 5-minute chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased a meager 20K in February after expanding a revised 311K the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate narrowed to 3.8% from 4.0% per annum during the same period even as the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 63.2% for the second consecutive month. A deeper look at the report showed Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 3.4% from a revised 3.1% in January despite forecasts for a 3.3% print.

The U.S. dollar struggled to hold its ground following the batch of mixed data prints, with EUR/USD grinding higher throughout the day to close at 1.1232. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains clouded with mixed signals as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap bearish formations from earlier this year after trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.1176).
  • Nevertheless, the failed attempt to test the 2019-low (1.1176) along with the lack of momentum to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) may spur range-bound conditions in EUR/USD, with a break/close back above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region raising the risk for a move towards 1.1340 (38.2% expansion).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% retracement), which largely lines up with the March-high (1.1448).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.