We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • On Monday we mentioned a dip to 1.11 in $EURUSD would be considered normal -- a bounce may emerge soon https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2019/10/21/EURUSD-drives-higher-on-weaker-USD-JWweb-121.html https://t.co/7HNPIFgSSw
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.02%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 75.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9xGPrKZJ6x
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 18) due at 11:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 0.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-23
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.32% Silver: 0.25% Oil - US Crude: -0.99% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J8CT9EwmWZ
  • GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Outlook: Will British Pound Resume Bullish Price Action? More details in the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2019/10/23/GBPUSD-GBPJPY-Outlook-Will-British-Pound-Resume-Bullish-Price-Action-MK.html?CHID=9&QPID=917714 https://t.co/IJleHME0vE
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/T3dGcJ8yOp
  • Will a debt crisis send us into a global recession, and will political instability continue to impact markets? Find out from @Bill_Blain, market commentator and strategist at Shard Capital, only on Trading Global Markets Decoded here: https://t.co/GL2RNwfNOJ https://t.co/EXWVBsqEgX
  • @nickcawley1 @GrayConnolly He was often to be found selling Her Majesty’s Pound short, in direct contradiction of the custom and decency of the day.
  • @DavidCottleFX @GrayConnolly haha..am just writing about GBP crashes since late 1970s - coincides with Strider running spot Cable books....hmmmm
  • Some Bank of Japan policy makers see little merit in an interest-rate cut this month, believing the ammunition should be saved for worse economic conditions - WSJ sources $JPY
EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

2019-04-05 11:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the economy is anticipated to add 180K jobs in March.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of a robust labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to preserve a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘overall conditions remaining favorable,’ and the central bank may stick to the sidelines at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. pledge to ‘be patient in assessing the need for any change in the stance of policy.’

In turn, a print of 180K or greater may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar, but another below-forecast print may spark a short-term rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE to cover the U.S. NFP report.

Impact that the U.S. NFP report had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB

2019

03/08/2019 13:30:00 GMT

180K

20K

+10

+11

February 2019 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of eurusd 5-minute chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased a meager 20K in February after expanding a revised 311K the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate narrowed to 3.8% from 4.0% per annum during the same period even as the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 63.2% for the second consecutive month. A deeper look at the report showed Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 3.4% from a revised 3.1% in January despite forecasts for a 3.3% print.

The U.S. dollar struggled to hold its ground following the batch of mixed data prints, with EUR/USD grinding higher throughout the day to close at 1.1232. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

  • The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains clouded with mixed signals as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap bearish formations from earlier this year after trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.1176).
  • Nevertheless, the failed attempt to test the 2019-low (1.1176) along with the lack of momentum to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) may spur range-bound conditions in EUR/USD, with a break/close back above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region raising the risk for a move towards 1.1340 (38.2% expansion).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% retracement), which largely lines up with the March-high (1.1448).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.