News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.94%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wSWdSw9NMi
  • WTI crude oil price action has been quite volatile today around Iran nuclear deal talks. The commodity is currently down -1.2% on the session after falling as much as -4.3% from intraday highs. #OOTT $CL_F $USO https://t.co/IPeHsxVYO8
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.14% FTSE 100: -0.17% Wall Street: -0.21% Germany 30: -0.22% France 40: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7ak6BIkvMw
  • Biden administration delays revamp of Trump's blacklist for China investments -BBG $USDCNH $SHCOMP
  • $EURUSD breakout stalled (so far) around the same spot that caught the feb top fib from the same study that caught the low in march (at the 38.2) https://t.co/ikWed0YfwE https://t.co/OfvmSW2V4S
  • The USD/CAD breakdown has stalled into lateral technical support at 1.2048/61 and the focus is on a reaction off this mark. Get your $USDCAD @MBForex here:https://t.co/LMTzDyI1df https://t.co/hD74PjjJHk
  • US Dollar Outlook: DXY Index Hammered as Treasury Yields Ebb -via @DailyFX Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/05/18/us-dollar-outlook-dxy-index-hammered-as-treasury-yields-ebb.html $USD $DXY #Trading https://t.co/2zVfDWI5Y7
  • AUD/USD attempts to retrace the decline following the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) as it bounces back from the 50-Day SMA (0.7715). Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/EIQ7utBH9A https://t.co/RcWf6JgYX5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.64%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EhQn4EqJYE
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.06% Gold: -0.03% Oil - US Crude: -1.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ALjM4GEwOj
EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

David Song, Strategist

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the economy is anticipated to add 180K jobs in March.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of a robust labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to preserve a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘overall conditions remaining favorable,’ and the central bank may stick to the sidelines at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. pledge to ‘be patient in assessing the need for any change in the stance of policy.’

In turn, a print of 180K or greater may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar, but another below-forecast print may spark a short-term rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE to cover the U.S. NFP report.

Impact that the U.S. NFP report had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB

2019

03/08/2019 13:30:00 GMT

180K

20K

+10

+11

February 2019 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of eurusd 5-minute chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased a meager 20K in February after expanding a revised 311K the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate narrowed to 3.8% from 4.0% per annum during the same period even as the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 63.2% for the second consecutive month. A deeper look at the report showed Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 3.4% from a revised 3.1% in January despite forecasts for a 3.3% print.

The U.S. dollar struggled to hold its ground following the batch of mixed data prints, with EUR/USD grinding higher throughout the day to close at 1.1232. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains clouded with mixed signals as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap bearish formations from earlier this year after trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.1176).
  • Nevertheless, the failed attempt to test the 2019-low (1.1176) along with the lack of momentum to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) may spur range-bound conditions in EUR/USD, with a break/close back above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region raising the risk for a move towards 1.1340 (38.2% expansion).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% retracement), which largely lines up with the March-high (1.1448).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES