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Strong Australia Employment Report to Fuel Larger AUD/USD Rebound

Strong Australia Employment Report to Fuel Larger AUD/USD Rebound

2018-10-17 23:00:00
David Song, Strategist
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Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

Australia’s Employment report may curb the recent pullback in AUD/USD as the economy is anticipated to add another 15.0K jobs in September.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of a more robust labor market may heighten the appeal of the Australian dollar as it instills an improved outlook for growth and inflation, and another positive development may put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low as ‘the unemployment rate is trending lower and, at 5.3 per cent, is the lowest in almost six years.

In turn, the RBA may adopt a more hawkish tone at the next meeting on November 6, but a batch of lackluster data prints may spark a bearish reaction in the Australian dollar as it encourages Governor Philip Lowe & Co. to retain the wait-and-see approach throughout the remainder of the year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Impact that Australia Employment report has had on AUD/USD during the last print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

AUG

2018

09/13/2018 01:30:00 GMT

18.0K

44.0K

+5

+11

August 2018 Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of audusd 5-minute chart

Job growth bounced back in August, with Australia adding a whopping 44.0K jobs in August, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 5.3% per annum for the second consecutive month. A deeper look at the report showed full-employment increasing another 33.7K after expanding a revised 20.1K in July, with part-time positions also climbing 10.2K during the same period.

AUD/USD gained ground following the above-forecast print, with the exchange rate snapping back from the 0.7175 region to close the day at 0.7189. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside as the exchange rate continues to track the downward trend from earlier this year, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic.
  • The recent series of higher highs may generate a larger rebound, but the advance from the 2018-low (0.7085) may continue to unravel over the coming days amid the lack of momentum to test the 0.7170 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7230 (61.8% expansion) area.
  • In turn, a move back below the 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement) region raises the risk for a move towards the 2018-low (0.7041), with the next downside region of interest coming in around 0.7020 (50% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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