We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • CHF Switzerland Aug Exports MM Actual: -4.4% Previous: -1.2% Imports MM Actual: 1.0% Previous: -0.5% Swiss Watch Exports YY Actual: 1.5% Previous: 4.7%
  • European Opening Calls: From IG #FTSE 7299 -0.20% #DAX 12384 -0.04% #CAC 5621 +0.01% #IBEX 9046 +0.16% #STOXX 3529 +0.03%
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/72SjAaa27X
  • My trading video for today: $Dollar and S&P 500 Strategy for the #FOMC Rate Decision' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/09/19/Dollar-and-SP-500-Steady-After-Fed-Cut-Monetary-Policy-Remains-Top-Concern.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
  • How can you avoid #FOMOintrading with easy seven steps to creating a trading plan? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/y2UvtIRZAG https://t.co/mBzJBviQDO
  • 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL), Actual: 0.2% Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.35%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.89%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SXDGRBOC4e
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FYKlVlhoR3
  • Heads Up: 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8%
Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Curb EUR/USD Losses

Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Curb EUR/USD Losses

2018-08-15 12:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

Updates to the U.S. Retail Sales report may spark a bearish reaction in the U.S. dollar as household spending is expected to increase 0.1% in July versus the 0.5% expansion the month prior.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

A marked slowdown in private-sector consumption may dampen the appeal of the greenback as it casts a weakened outlook for growth, with the U.S. dollar at risk of facing near-term headwinds should the data prints dampen bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.

Keep in mind, recent comments from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest the central bank will deliver a rate-hike in September as ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,’ but mixed data prints coming out of the economy may impede on the Fed’s hiking-cycle as ‘many District contacts expressed concern about the possible adverse effects of tariffs and other proposed trade restrictions, both domestically and abroad, on future investment activity.’

With that said, a dismal development may curb the recent weakness in EUR/USD, but an above-forecast Retail Sales print may fuel a further decline in the exchange rate as it boosts bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the last print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUN

2018

07/16/2018 12:30:00 GMT

0.5%

0.5%

-12

-7

June 2018 U.S. Retail Sales

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of eurusd 5-minute chart

U.S. Retail Sales increased another 0.5% in June after expanding a revised 1.3% the month prior, with the advance led by a 2.2% rise in demand for health & personal care items. A deeper look at the report showed spending on motor vehicle & parts climbing 0.9%, with demand for building materials rising 0.8%, while discretionary spending on clothing slipped 2.5% during the same period.

The initial reaction in the greenback was short-lived, with EUR/USD consolidating throughout the North American trade to end the day at 1.1711. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • Recent price action in EUR/USD raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as it snaps the summer range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also highlighting bearish dynamic as the oscillator pushes into oversold territory.
  • The close below the 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) region raises the risk for a move back towards 1.1290 (61.8% expansion), with the next region of interest comes in around 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) followed by the 1.1140 (78.6% expansion) area.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide!

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.