We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Currency Strategist @PaulRobinsonFX discusses important technical developments relevant to short to intermediate-term commodity and equity index traders here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/816147795?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • ECB's De Guindos says monetary policy side effects are becoming more evident $EUR
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to gain insight on indices and commodities for the active trader. Register here: https://t.co/gghsFsZYlx https://t.co/ujAbNhzLpz
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy?Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/gbDTCgqHI5
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 GBP Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q) due at 09:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 2.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-20
  • RT @mynamejd: SP500 earnings revisions up & down per sector - Source Refinitiv https://t.co/bvmlQCltkN
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.87%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 79.99%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/06877Dk0Iz
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR ECB Publishes Financial Stability Review due at 09:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-20
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.37% Silver: 0.22% Oil - US Crude: -0.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Nl2cW4qqNE
  • US Dollar Selloff May Accelerate After #FOMC Minutes Released - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2019/11/20/US-Dollar-Selloff-May-Accelerate-After-FOMC-Minutes-Released.html
Strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report to Tame EUR/USD Rebound

Strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report to Tame EUR/USD Rebound

2018-07-06 09:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may tame the recent rebound in EUR/USD as the world’s largest economy is anticipated to add another 195K jobs in June.

Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to uptick to an annualized 2.8% from 2.7% in May, and signs of stronger job/wage growth should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on course to implement four rate-hikes in 2018 as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.

In turn, the FOMC may largely reiterate that ‘gradually returning interest rates to a more normal level as the economy strengthens is the best way the Fed can help sustain an environment in which American households and businesses can thrive,’ and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may show a greater willingness to adopt a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy as ‘economic growth appears to have picked up in the current

quarter, largely reflecting a bounceback in household spending.’

However, a batch of lackluster data prints may fuel a larger recovery in EUR/USD as it encourages FOMC officials to retain their current projections for a neutral Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00%, with the greenback at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the near-term as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.

Impact that the U.S. NFP report has had on EUR/USD during the previous print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

APR

2018

06/01/2018 12:30:00 GMT

190K

223K

+8

-14

April 2018 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 10-Minute Chart

Image of EURUSD 10-Minute chart

The U.S. economy added 223K jobs in May following a 159K expansion the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 3.8% from 3.9% in April as the Labor Force Participation Rate slipped to 62.7% from 62.8% during the same period. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings increased 2.7% per annum amid forecasts for a 2.6% print, with the gauge for Average Weekly Hours holding steady at 34.5.

The initial downtick in EUR/USD was short-lived, with the pair largely consolidating throughout the day to close at 1.1657. Sign up and join DailyFX Strategists Michael Boutros and Christopher Vecchio LIVE to cover the fresh updates to the NFP report.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of EURUSD daily chart
  • Keeping a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it threatens the bearish formation from earlier this year, but need to see EUR/USD also break trendline resistance for a more meaningful run at the June-high (1.1852).
  • Need a close above the 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) hurdle to open up the topside targets, with the first region of interest coming in around 1.1970 (23.6% expansion) followed by the 1.2140 (50% retracement) area.
  • However, failure to hold above the 1.1640 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement) region bring the June-low (1.1508) on the radar, with a break/close below the 1.1510 (38.2% expansion) region opening up the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide!

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.