We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @Stalingrad_Poor: FOMC: "several participants observed that equity, corporate debt, and CRE valuations were elevated and drew attention…
  • Gold edges 0.25% off session highs after FOMC minutes and still sliding; eyes on $1,600/oz $XAU $GC_F $GLD
  • pretty decisive breakout bar there in $USDJPY https://t.co/WSFNahhjQX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.13%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.91%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/siALG8JXK0
  • Fed Minutes: - Conditions expected in Q2 2020 for T-Bill tapering
  • News that the number of new #coronavirus cases in China has fallen for a second successive day is helping #oil prices on hopes that the outbreak will have less impact on global demand than once feared. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/HVrsEnyZLN #OOTT https://t.co/eMmhoSyEae
  • RT @federalreserve: We have posted the minutes from the #FOMC meeting held January 28-29, 2020: https://t.co/TZmeMhsJRe
  • Reads to me as though there are no FOMC rate hikes in the cards for the foreseeable future and little appetite to unwind last year's 75bps of cuts $USD $DXY https://t.co/HwIPJ5y4Tt
  • RT @IGTV: In this week’s episode of IG's Trading the Markets, @ShaunMurison_IG and @VictoriaS_IG discuss how the #coronavirus is likely to…
  • Fed Minutes: - Markets continue to price in quarter point rate cut in 2020
Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Fuel EUR/USD Rebound

Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Fuel EUR/USD Rebound

2018-05-15 11:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist

Trading the News: U.S. Retail Sales

Fresh updates to the U.S Retail Sales report may fuel a larger rebound in EUR/USD as household spending is expected to narrow in April.A marked slowdown in private-sector consumptionmay sap the appeal of the greenback as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may stick to the current forward guidance for monetary policy as ‘inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Even though the FOMC is widely expected to deliver a 25bp at the next quarterly meeting in June, recent comments from Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. suggest the central bank is in no rush to extend the hiking-cycle as ‘the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.’ In turn, a set of lackluster data prints may generate a mixed reaction, with the greenback at risk of facing headwinds as market participants scale back bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.

Nevertheless, an above-forecast print for U.S. retail sales may trigger a bullish reaction in the dollar as it puts pressure on the FOMC to adopt a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy.

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



04/16/2018 12:30:00 GMT





March 2018 U.S. Retail Sales

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of EURUSD 5-minute chart

Retail spending climbed 0.6% in March following a 0.1% contraction the month prior, while the core measure for retail sales, which excludes auto and gas, increased another 0.3% during the same period amid forecasts for a 0.4% print. A deeper look at the report showed demand for motor vehicle, parts increasing 2.0% to lead the advance, with spending on health/personal care increasing 1.4%, while discretionary spending on clothing slipped 0.8% after rising a marginal 0.2% in February.

The greenback struggled to hold its ground following the mixed details, with EUR/USD advancing from the 1.2360 region to end the day at 1.2379. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of EURUSD daily chart
  • Keep in mind, failure to preserve the range from earlier this year dampens the broader outlook for EUR/USD especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bearish formation from earlier this year; need to keep a close eye on the oscillator as it snaps back from oversold territory and works its way towards trendline resistance.
  • Lack of momentum to break/close below the 1.1790 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) area raises the risk for a move back towards 1.2060 (50% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.2140 (50% retracement) to 1.2170 (61.8% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide!

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.