Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
EUR/USD Extends Bearish Sequence Ahead of 1Q U.S. GDP Report

EUR/USD Extends Bearish Sequence Ahead of 1Q U.S. GDP Report

David Song,
What's on this page

- Advanced 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Show Growth Rate Slowing to Annualized 2.0% from 2.9%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) to Climb to 2.6% from 1.9%.

- EUR/USD Clears March-Low (1.2155) as Bearish Sequence Unfolds. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Slips Towards Overbought Territory.

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

DailyFX Calendar

Updates to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may curb the recent weakness in EUR/USD as the growth rate is anticipated to slow to an annualized 2.0% from 2.9%.

Bear in mind, market participants may put greater emphasis on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, as the reading is projected to increase 2.6% during the first three-months of 2018, which would mark the fastest pace of growth since 2007. Signs of heightening price pressures may ultimately trigger a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to extend the hiking-cycle.

However, a series of below-forecast data prints may sap the appeal of the greenback, and EUR/USD may stage a near-term rebound as market participants scale back bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.

Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the previous quarter

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips ChangePips Change

4Q A


01/26/2018 13:30:00 GMT3.0%2.6%-8-4

4Q 2017 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EUR/USD 15-Minute Chart

EURUSD 15-Minute Chart

The U.S. economy grew less-than-expected during the last three-months of 2017, with the growth rate slowing to an annualized 2.6% from 3.2% in the third-quarter. A deeper look at the report showed the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) climbing to an annualized 1.9% from 1.3%, while the gauge for Personal Consumption increased 3.8%during the same period amid forecast for a 3.7% print.

The lackluster data prints sparked a mixed reaction in the greenback, with EUR/USD largely consolidating throughout the day to close at 1.2429. Sign up & join DailyFX Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio LIVE to cover the fresh updates to the U.S. GDP report.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EURUSD Daily Chart
  • Near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as it extends the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week, with the pair clearing the March-low (1.2155).
  • Close below 1.2130 (50% retracement) raises the risk for a move towards 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1970 (23.% expansion), with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1670 (78.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement).
  • Keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches oversold territory, with move below 30 raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the bearish momentum gathers pace.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide !

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.