News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇫🇮 Unemployment Rate (DEC) Actual: 7.8% Previous: 6.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-28
  • Heads Up:🇫🇮 Unemployment Rate (DEC) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 6.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-28
  • We are facing an existential question Thursday: is the enthusiasm for speculative favorites like GameStop the baseline for markets or the nascent $SPX drop ($VIX charge)? And, what can data like US 4Q GDP influence? My outlook for Thursday: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/01/28/SP-500-Breaks-Lower-as-VIX-Soars-Will-Tesla-and-Apple-Overshadow-Gamestop.html https://t.co/ppzpUfDuGx
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 68.25%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/un4cXxQsln
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/j1x2s8OmBt
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/2cAp4ZgzJr
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.20% US 500: -0.40% France 40: -0.60% Germany 30: -0.62% FTSE 100: -0.84% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/snDymKUOcZ
  • AMC (6.75bln mkt cap) turned over 1.25 billion shares this past session for a 300% gain. Meanwhile Apple (2.4 tln mkt cap) only did 140 mln shares on an earnings day for a -0.8% loss
  • Will the US Dollar fall versus the Singapore Dollar, Taiwanese Dollar and Philippine Peso if a fiscal stimulus delay pressures Treasury yields? The Fed and earnings may keep risk appetite intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Q7iRYGBcNo https://t.co/FxAL6FnUST
  • #Bitcoin starting to look extremely interesting as it carves out a Descending Triangle above $30,000 If support remains intact, a rebound back towards 33,500 looks on the cards A break of triangle resistance opening the door to a retest of the yearly high #BTC #BTCUSD https://t.co/0Su2gcNFag
EUR/USD to Stay Under Pressure on Upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

EUR/USD to Stay Under Pressure on Upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Climb 185K in March, Unemployment Rate to Downtick to Annualized 4.0% from 4.1%.

- Average Hourly Earnings to Increase to 2.7% per Annum from 2.6% in February. Will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Endorse Four Rate-Hikes for 2018?

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

DailyFX Calendar

A 185K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by signs of faster wage growth may keep EUR/USD under pressure as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

A further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the FOMC to deliver four rate-hikes for 2018 as ‘the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate,’ and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may show a greater willingness to extend the hiking-cycle as the economy nears full-employment.

However, a batch of lackluster developments may produce headwinds for the greenback as it drags on interest-rate expectations, with EUR/USD at risk for a rebound as it preserves the March range.

Impact that the U.S. NFP report has had on EUR/USD during the previous print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB

2018

03/09/2018 13:30:00 GMT

185K

313K

+17

+20

February 2018 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) surged 313K in February amid forecasts for a 205K expansion, while the jobless rate held steady at an annualized 4.1% as the Labor Force Participation rate unexpectedly widened to 63.0% from 62.7% in January. A deeper look at the report showed Average Hourly Earnings narrow to an annualized 2.6% from a revised 2.8% in January to mark the first slowdown since October, while Average Weekly Hours bounced back during the same period as the gauged climbed to 34.5 from 34.3 the month prior.

EUR/USD faced a mixed reaction despite the pickup in the headline reading for NFP, with the pair bouncing back from a session low of 1.2273 to end the day at 1.2303. Want More insight? Join the DailyFX Team Live to cover the fresh updates to the U.S. employment report.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD stands at risk for a larger pullback as it preserves the series of lower-highs from earlier this week, with a break/close below the 1.2230 (50% retracement) region raising the risk for a move back towards 1.2140 (50% retracement) region, which sits just beneath the March-low (1.2155).
  • Keeping a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it threatens the bullish formation and appears to be snapping the trendline carried over from late last year.
  • However, another failed attempt to break/close below 1.2230 (50% retracement) may keep EUR/USD within the March-range, with a move back above the 1.2320 (23.6% retracement) to 1.2370 (61.8% expansion) region opening up the 1.2430 (50% expansion) hurdle.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide!

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES