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Waning U.S. Consumer Confidence to Fuel EUR/USD Resilience

Waning U.S. Consumer Confidence to Fuel EUR/USD Resilience

David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Consumer Confidence to Narrow for First Time Since June.

- Conference Board Survey Has Held Above 100-Threshold Since July 2016.

- Sign Up & Join DailyFX Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio LIVE to Cover the U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence

U.S. Consumer Confidence

A downtick in the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey may spark fresh 2017-highs in EUR/USD as mixed developments coming out of the real economy dampens bets for an imminent Fed rate-hike.

Why Is This Event Important:

Narrowing expectations for higher borrowing-costs may continue to dampen the appeal of the U.S. dollar as Fed Fund Futures now highlight a 40% probability for a move in December. In turn, the greenback may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior following the September meeting especially if Chair Janet Yellen and Co. project a more shallow path for the benchmark interest rate.

Nevertheless, the FOMC may start to unload the balance sheet in an effort to counteract the weakness in U.S. yields, and the preset course to wind down the asset-purchases may sap the bearish sentiment surrounding the dollar as the other major central banks continue to embark on their easing programs.

Impact that the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey has had on EUR/USD during the last print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUL

2017

07/25/2017 14:00:00 GMT

116.5

121.1

-26

-51

July 2017 U.S. Consumer Confidence

EUR/USD 10-Minute Chart

EUR/USD Chart

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey unexpectedly climbed to 121.1 from a revised 117.3 in June to mark the second-highest reading for the year. Nevertheless, a deeper look at the report showed 12-month inflation expectations sitting at the 2017-low, with the readying holding steady at an annualized 4.6% for the second month in July. The U.S. dollar gained ground following the pickup in household sentiment, with EUR/USD struggling to hold above the 1.1700 handle as the pair ended the day at 1.1645.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: Conference Board Survey Narrows in August

  • Need a green, five-minute candle following the survey to favor a long EUR/USD position.
  • If the market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Household Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves for Second Month

  • Need a red, five-minute EUR/USD candle to consider a long dollar position.
  • Implement the same approach as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Check out our EUR/USD quarterly projections in our FREE DailyFX Trading Forecasts

  • Topside targets remain on the radar for EUR/USD as it breaks out of a narrow range and climbs to fresh 2017-highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) clears the bearish formation from earlier this month.
  • May see a EUR/USD make a more meaningful attempt to fill-in the gap from January-2015 (1.2000 down to 1.1955) as a bull-flag appears to be panning out, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 1.2130 (50% retracement).
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it comes up against overbought territory, with a break above 70 raising the risk for a further advance in the euro-dollar exchange rate as the bullish momentum gathers pace.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2042 (July 2012-low)
  • Interim Support: 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (61.8% expansion)

EUR/USD Retail Sentiment

EUR/USD Retail Sentiment

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

Retail trader data shows 24.1% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.08143; price has moved 10.8% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.0% higher than yesterday and 7.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 8.1% higher from last week.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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