News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar has spiked up to a fresh September high this morning on the back of a really strong retail sales report out of the US. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
  • Goldman Sachs upgrades Q3 GDP forecast to 4.5% from 3.5%
  • I will note that despite AMC announcing they would soon be accepting additional cryptocurrencies (including Litecoin) for purchases, $LTCUSD didn't even exhibit a fraction of its response to the fake Walmart news. Market learning its lesson or AMC seen as irrelevant? #Kodakmoment
  • While the S&P 500 is holding to a strict range above its 50-day SMA, volatility for the Dollar has picked up on retail sales. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses trade today and further out!
  • Canadian #Dollar Outlook: $USDCAD Breakout Imminent- #Loonie Levels -
  • S&P falling from resistance zone after another quick test at the 930 open could be one of those bearish engulf kind of days $SPX $SPY $ES
  • The members of the FOMC, as well as all elected officials, should be forced to put their investments into a blind trust. “If men were angels…” as Madison said.
  • @JohnKicklighter ah, right you are. They were far too hurried in 12 to be enjoying a show.
  • $EURJPY testing support from a long-term trendline projection, helping to cauterize the low for today
Rising Threat of Above-Target U.K. CPI to Foster GBP/USD Rebound

Rising Threat of Above-Target U.K. CPI to Foster GBP/USD Rebound

David Song, Strategist

- U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Rebound in July.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Expand Annualized 2.5%- Second Highest Reading for 2017.

- Sign Up & Join DailyFX Market Analyst Nicholas Cawley LIVE to Cover the U.K. CPI Report.

Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI)


A pickup in both the headline and core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may foster a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it puts pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

In response, a growing number of BoE officials may change their stance at the next meeting on September 14 as ‘the withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year would help to moderate the inflation overshoot while leaving monetary policy very supportive.’ However, another dismal development may continue to generate a 7 to 2 split as Sir David Ramsden joins the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and the British Pound may face a more bearish fate over the near-term as the majority remains in no rush to raise the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.

Impact that the U.K. CPI report has had on GBP/USD during the previous release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



07/18/2017 08:30:00 GMT





June 2017 U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart


The U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 2.6% in June, with the core rate of inflation highlighting a similar behavior, with the reading slipping to 2.4% per annum from 2.6% in May. A deeper look at the report showed the weakness was led by a 1.0% decline in prices for clothing & footwear, with the cost for food & non-alcoholic beverages narrowing 0.2% in June, while household costs held flat during the same period after rising 0.6% in May. The British Pound lost ground following the series of dismal prints, with GBP/USD pushing below the 1.13050 region to end the day at 1.3039.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core CPI Picks Up in July

  • Need a green, five-minute candle following the CPI report to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish British Pound trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Inflation Report Continues to Disappoint

  • Need a red, five-minute GBP/USD candle to favor a short British Pound trade.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish Sterling trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • GBP/USD stands at risk of extending the decline from the monthly-high (1.3268) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to preserve the upward trend from May; may see price exhibit a similar behavior if pound-dollar breaks the bullish formations carried over from earlier this year.
  • Break/close below 1.2950 (23.6% retracement) opens up the next downside hurdle around 1.2860 (61.8% retracement), which sits above the July-low (1.2812), followed by the 1.2800 handle (50% expansion).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3460 (50% retracement) to 1.3481 (July 2016-high)
  • Interim Support: 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2680 (50% retracement)

GBP/USD Retail Sentiment

GBP/USD Retail Sentiment

Track Retail Sentiment in Real-Time with the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX

Retail trader data shows 49.3% of traders are net-long GBP/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.03 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 23 when GBP/USD traded near 1.27524; price has moved 1.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.2% higher than yesterday and 9.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% higher than yesterday and 23.3% lower from last week.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.