News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0Rac5Jbkwc
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.05% Wall Street: -0.04% France 40: -0.05% Germany 30: -0.07% US 500: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/9K9bEY3UGo
  • The Dollar is poised with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, but it needs a catalyst to make something of the setup. $EURUSD has a wedge and may need to weight for #NFPs but $GBPUSD has the smallest 50-day range since July 2014 and the #BOE later today https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/06/EURUSD-and-GBPUSD-Staged-for-Breakouts-but-Where-are-the-Sparks-Before-NFPs.html https://t.co/xOeVyB0SOo
  • (Market Alert) AUD/USD Sinks as China Suspends Economic Talks with Australia, Will Support Break? $AUDUSD #China #NDRC #Australia #AUD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/06/AUDUSD-Sinks-as-China-Suspends-Economic-Talks-with-Australia-Will-Support-Break.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/MkAxeNTjQF
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.015%) S&P 500 (-0.096%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.191%) [delayed] -BBG
  • The US Dollar may continue trading lower against ASEAN currencies, with USD/SGD and USD/THB eyeing key support ahead. USD/IDR and USD/PHP also exhibit bearish postures. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/A5n9A8NBy4 https://t.co/5Eud5rCxyc
  • Do you think Dow Jones will outperform Nasdaq in May?
  • RT @KyleR_IG: First gaslighting, and now the silent treatment. This isn't a healthy relationship.
  • NDRC halts activities under China-Australia economic dialogue [update via Bloomberg] - cites Australia's disruption of cooperations with China $AUDUSD slipping lower, falling to lows of the day, China is AU's largest trading partner, feeling disruption woes #AUD #NDRC https://t.co/xQ8W11UVL2
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.00% Oil - US Crude: -0.13% Silver: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/rO6XynukTE
Improved U. of Michigan Confidence Survey to Curb USD Weakness

Improved U. of Michigan Confidence Survey to Curb USD Weakness

David Song, Strategist

- U. of Michigan Confidence to Rebound to 97.0 in March.

- 12-Month Inflation Expectations Have Increased for Last Two Consecutive Months.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence

A rebound in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may curb the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

The fresh developments coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be dragging on interest-rate expectations as central bank officials continue to forecast a terminal fed funds rate close to 3.00%, and the greenback stands at risk of facing headwinds over the coming months especially as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. persistently warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.’ Nevertheless, a meaningful pickup in household sentiment may keep the FOMC on course to deliver additional rate hikes in 2017 as the central bank anticipates a ‘sustained return to 2 percent inflation.’

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Non-Farm Payrolls (FEB)

200K

235K

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (DEC)

2.8%

2.8%

Personal Income (JAN)

0.3%

0.4%

Signs of stronger wage growth accompanied by the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a positive development, and a marked rebound in household sentiment may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it puts increase pressure on the FOMC to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

2.7%

2.7%

Consumer Credit (JAN)

$17.250B

$8.794B

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (4Q P)

2.1%

1.9%

Nevertheless, higher costs paired with the slowdown in private-sector lending may drag on consumer confidence, and an unexpected decline in the U. of Michigan survey may drag on the greenback as it casts a weakened outlook for growth and inflation.

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Confidence Rebounds to 97.0 or Higher

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the survey to consider a short EUR/USD position.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Household Sentiment Continues to Wane

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD position.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • EUR/USD appears to be making a more meaningful run at the 2017 high (1.0829) following the FOMC interest rate decision as the pair finally closes above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion) with the next topside target coming in around 1.0780 (100% expansion) to 1.0790 (38.2% expansion).
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it comes up against trendline resistance and threatens the bearish formation carried over from the previous year, but failure to break the series of lower-highs may undermine the recent recovery in the exchange rate especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps the door open to further extend its quantitative easing (QE) program.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0880 (61.8% expansion) to 1.0910 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.0340 (2017-low) and 1.0370 (38.2% expansion)

Impact that the U. of Michigan surveyhas had on EUR/USD during the previous release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB

2017

02/10/2017 15:00 GMT

98.0

95.7

+2

+13

February 2017 U. of Michigan Confidence

EUR/USD 5-Minute

EUR/USD Chart

The U. of Michigan Confidence survey narrowed more-than-expected in February, with the figure slipping to 95.7 from 98.5 the month prior. Nevertheless, 12-month inflation expectations picked up for the second straight month, with the gauge advanced to an annualized 2.8% from 2.6% in January, but Fed officials appear to be in no rush to further normalize monetary policy as Chair Janet Yellen warns ‘inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices.’ The greenback struggled to hold its ground following the dismal print, with EUR/USD bouncing back from 1.0619 to end the day at 1.0635.

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides.

Read More:

Technical Weekly: USD/JPY 115.50-116.00 is a Clear Trading Barrier

S&P 500 Pulls Back to Support and Holds; Rip to New Highs or Consolidation Next?

What To Watch On The Breakdown In Oil & Gold As DXY Accelerates

PBOC, Fed Remain Key Drivers to Yuan

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES