News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here: https://t.co/EDvQdHfIPm https://t.co/R7pa7DsM8n
EUR/USD Weakness to Persist on Upbeat U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey

EUR/USD Weakness to Persist on Upbeat U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey

David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Consumer Confidence to Rebound in November.

- Conference Board Index to Push Above 100-Threshold for Third Time in 2016.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is expected to rebound to 101.5 from 98.6 in October, and a marked improvement in household sentiment may drag on EUR/USD as it instills an improved outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Encouraging data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may push the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark interest rate at the last-2016 meeting on December 14, and the central bank may continue to normalize monetary policy in the year ahead as central bank officials argue the ‘near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.’ However, another downtick in consumer inflation expectations may prompt the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more dovish outlook as ‘inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective.’

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Credit (SEP)

$17.500B

$19.292B

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (OCT)

2.6%

2.8%

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q A)

2.6%

2.9%

The pickup in private-sector lending accompanied by signs of stronger wage growth may boost consumer confidence, and a strong rebound in the Conference Board’s survey may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it fuels bets for higher borrowing-costs.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

1.6%

1.6%

Non-Farm Payrolls (OCT)

173K

161K

ADP Employment (OCT)

165K

147K

However, slowing job growth paired with sticky price pressures may drag on household sentiment, and another unexpected decline in the confidence survey may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to further delay the normalization cycle.

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: Conference Board Survey Rebounds to 101.5 or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the survey to favor a short EUR/USD position.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD position.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • EUR/USD may face a near-term rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be working its way out of oversold territory, but the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, with the Euro at risk of facing increased volatility next month as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to extend the deadline of its quantitative easing (QE) program at the December 8 policy meeting.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0780 (100% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0500 (50% expansion) to 1.0517 (December 2015-low)

Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for NZD/USD heading into the report!

Impact the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT

2016

10/25/2016 14:00 GMT

101.5

98.6

+12

+32

October 2016 U.S. Consumer Confidence

EUR/USD 5-Minute

EUR/USD Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey missed market expectations in October, with the index unexpectedly narrowing to 98.6 from a revised reading of 103.5 in September. At the same time, the gauge for 12-month inflation expectations slipped to 4.8% from 5.0% during the same period, and the weakening outlook for price growth may encourage the Federal Reserve to further delay the normalization cycle as the central bank warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’ Despite the limited market reaction, EUR/USD climbed higher throughout the North American trade, with the pair ending the day at 1.0886.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Polarity Point in the Making

S&P 500 Technical Update: Levels & Lines to Consider

Canadian Dollar Recovery to Fizzle If OPEC Fails to Deliver

EUR/USD Rallies as French Confidence Remains High Ahead of Next Primaries

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES