News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Hang Seng Index #HSI appears to face an immediate resistance at 29,870 (127.2% Fibonacci extension). Prices surged more than 3% before pulling back slightly in the afternoon trading session. Stock connections registered over HK$ 20 billion net southbound flow today. https://t.co/3J5JNIVopi
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 67.52%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/4BsBWBZvaI
  • Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Jan 05, 2021 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5,008.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Oil - US Crude weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8PE3J3958F
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.43% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.34% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.27% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/CCqUPxXb1g
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/ruKhwAC2Sf
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.74% France 40: 0.60% FTSE 100: 0.56% US 500: 0.39% Wall Street: 0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/NDCTrOVL5r
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.02% Oil - US Crude: 0.42% Gold: 0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/N0Fo4mM16G
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.37% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.34% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/IBkW89Ji1M
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato: Vaccination supply for population to be secured by 1H of this year - BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 66.75%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KdbuJBLZMr
Strong U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Fuel EUR/USD Losses

Strong U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Fuel EUR/USD Losses

David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Rebound 1.7% in October.

- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts to Increase 0.3%.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

A 1.7% rebound in U.S. Durable Goods Orders may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate at the last 2016-meeting on December 14.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Fed Funds Futures are pricing a greater than 90% probability for a December rate-hike as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may continue to normalize monetary policy in the year ahead should the data print reinforce central bank expectations for a ‘moderate’ recovery. However, another unexpected decline in demand for large-ticket items may drag on interest-rate expectations as private-sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

U. of Michigan Sentiment (NOV P)

87.9

91.6

NFIB Small Business Optimism (OCT)

94.1

94.9

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (OCT)

2.6%

2.8%

Improved confidence accompanied by the pickup in household earnings may boost orders for U.S. Durable Goods, and a positive development may spark a bullish reaction in the greenback as it fuels bets for an imminent Fed rate-hike.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

1.6%

1.6%

Non-Farm Payrolls (OCT)

173K

161K

Personal Consumption Expenditure- Core (YoY) (SEP)

1.7%

1.7%

Nevertheless, sticky price growth paired with the slowdown in employment may dampen demand for large-ticket items, and another disappointing report may weigh on the greenback as it provides the FOMC with greater scope to retain the accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Rebound 1.7% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the report to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the bearish trend from May continues to take shape, and the pair stands at risk of extending the decline from earlier this month as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory; need to see the momentum indicator climb above 30 (textbook buy signal) to favor a larger recovery in the exchange rate.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0780 (100% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0500 (50% expansion) to 1.0517 (December 2015-low)

Impact the U.S. Durable Goods Orders has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP P

2016

10/27/2016 12:30 GMT

0.0%

-0.1%

-3

-26

September 2016 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

EUR/USD 5-Minute

EUR/USD Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

Demand for U.S. Durable Goods narrowed 0.1% in September following a revised 0.3% advance the month prior, while Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for future investment, narrowed 1.2% during the same period amid forecasts for a 0.1% decline. Despite the weakness, it seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be following a similar path to 2015 as a growing number of central bank officials prepare U.S. household and businesses for a December rate-hike. Market participants showed a limited reaction to the report, with EUR/USD pulling back from a high of 1.0942 to end the day at 1.0893.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

Technical Focus: SPX Record High so What Now?

FTSE 100: Springing from Trend-line, Recent Range

COT-Copper Traders Lose their Minds

Webinar: FX Majors in Focus as USD Rally Dissipates

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES