Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold saw its worst performance the past 5 days in 5 months as longer-dated government bond yields in developed countries rose Could this be the beginning of a turning point in #XAUUSD? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/08/15/Gold-Price-Outlook-Will-XAUUSD-Brush-off-Worst-Week-in-5-Months.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/x2Indk3b7P
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/PT09ZsIOCa
  • The US #Dollar may rise, buoyed by haven demand as fiscal stimulus talks stagnate and swelling tensions between Washington and Beijing sink trade talks. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Wcw9PDUr67 https://t.co/gnYZYl6aLV
  • Upside in #CrudeOil struggling ahead of #OPEC meeting. Cartel likely to maintain wait and see approach. Get your #commodities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gNHHKoTUzm https://t.co/eF40DRIBJ5
  • #Gold had some big moves last week, and while vol is expected to die down a bit, it will be important to see if gold can hold its ground in the coming days/weeks. Get your #metals update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/3fjodPHTDm
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/i342ipPuvW
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tHp0Nb3Tr5
EUR/USD to Stage Near-Term Recovery on Dismal NFP Report

EUR/USD to Stage Near-Term Recovery on Dismal NFP Report

2016-08-05 11:30:00
David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Rise Sub-200K for Fifth Time in 2016.

- Average Hourly Earnings to Hold Steady at Annualized 2.6%- Highest Print for 2016.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless rate may boost the appeal of the greenback and trigger further losses in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Fed Funds Futures highlight a 12% probability for a September rate-hike, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage central bank officials to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, an unexpected slowdown in wage growth may keep the FOMC on the sidelines throughout 2016 as the central bank warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUL)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)



NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN)



The improvement in business confidence along with the pickup in private-sector consumption may generate a strong NFP print, and a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the greenback should the data boost interest-rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




ISM Non-Manufacturing (JUL)



ISM Manufacturing (JUL)



Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (2Q A)



However, U.S. firms may scale back on hiring amid slowing outputs paired with signs of a weaker-than-expected recovery, and a dismal labor report may drag on the greenback as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Increases 180K or More, Labor Force Participation Improves

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD may extend the rebound from the end of July following the string of failed attempts to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0960 (23.6% retracement) to 1.0970 (38.2% retracement), while price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breakout of the bearish formations from earlier this year.
  • Key Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Key Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for EUR/USDheading into the report!

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUN 2016

07/08/2016 12:30 GMT





June 2016 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD 5-Minute


U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) surged 287K in June after climbing a revised 11K the month prior, while the jobless rate climbed to an annualized 4.9% from 4.7% as the Labor Force Participation Rate advanced to 62.7% from 62.6% during the same period. Nevertheless, Average Hourly Earnings rose to an annualized 2.6% amid forecasts for a 2.7% print, and the ongoing weakness in wage growth may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay the normalization cycle as central bank officials wait for evidence of stronger inflation. The initial market reaction was short lived, with EUR/USD climbing above the 1.1100 handle following the report, but the greenback regained its footing later in the day, with the pair closing the week at 1.1047.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Sharply Unchanged, Consolidating or Topping?

COT-British Pound Ownership Profile Warns of a Bottom

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

USD/JPY July Recovery at Risk on Wait-and-See FOMC/BoJ Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.