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Sticky Euro-Zone Core CPI to Encourage Larger EUR/USD Rebound

Sticky Euro-Zone Core CPI to Encourage Larger EUR/USD Rebound

David Song, Strategist

- Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Halt Four Straight Months of Negative Price Growth.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 0.8% for Second Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Even though the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hold flat in June, stickiness in the core rate of inflation may boost the appeal of the single-currency and fuel a larger rebound in EUR/USD as it curbs speculation for additional monetary support.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

The European Central Bank (ECB) may continue to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy amid the disintegration in Europe, but President Mario Draghi and Co. may largely promote a wait-and-see approach at the next interest-rate decision on July 21 as the slew of non-standard measures work their way through the real economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




M3 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY)



Employment (QoQ) (1Q)



Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)



The pickup in private-sector lending accompanied by signs of a stronger recovery may encourage stronger price growth in the monetary union, and a positive development may spur a bullish reaction in the Euro as market participants scale back bets for additional ECB support.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Business Climate Indicator (JUN)



Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)



Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)



Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with the slowdown in household spending may encourage European firms to offer discounted prices, and a soft inflation report may drag on the single-currency as it puts increased pressure on the ECB to further support the euro-area.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish EUR Trade: CPI Report Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the report to consider a long EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish Euro trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish EUR Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Disappoint

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD stands at risk of giving back the advance from earlier this year as it fails to preserve the upward trend from December, with a closing price below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0960 (23.6% retracement) to 1.0970 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a further decline as a head-and-shoulders formation appears to be taking shape.
  • Key Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Key Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for EUR/USD heading into the report!

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

Impact that the Euro-Zone CPI has had on EUR/USD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



05/31/2016 9:00 GMT





May 2016 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)


The Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped an annualized 0.1% in May following the 0.2% contraction the month prior, while the core rate of inflation advanced to 0.8% from 0.7% during the same period. The low-inflationary environment may encourage the European Central Bank (ECB) to preserve a dovish outlook for monetary policy, but the Governing Council may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach over the coming months as the non-standard measures work their way through the real economy. The initial market reaction was short-lived, with EUR/USD bouncing back from 1.1127, but the pair consolidated throughout the day to close at 1.1129.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

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Brexit Aftermath Analysis Directory

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.