News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇿 Building Permits MoM (JUN) Actual: 3.8% Previous: -2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Building Permits MoM (JUN) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Previous: -2.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Bitcoin Price to Boost Coinbase as Robinhood IPO Flops $BTCUSD has propelled higher this week. With crypto outlook sanguine again, $COIN has potential to outperform $HOOD following its weak trading debut. Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/29/bitcoin-price-to-boost-coinbase-coin-as-robinhood-ipo-hood-flops.html https://t.co/cR8w1neoT5
  • Robinhood given an enterprise value of $32 billion after shares priced at $38. Get your market update here:https://t.co/fybAmxrAdo https://t.co/XeUn7kAZ0Q
  • 🇰🇷 Business Confidence (JUL) Actual: 97 Previous: 98 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.87% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.63% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.43% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.39% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.37% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/vH1UWZP3Gt
  • Robinhood closes its first session as a publicly listed company down just over 8% $HOOD https://t.co/4GOkrVfs1B
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Business Confidence (JUL) due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 98 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-29
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.33% Gold: 1.17% Oil - US Crude: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gkJwZQnj4N
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.22%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.65%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NPtVj3FLsQ
Sticky Euro-Zone Core CPI to Encourage Larger EUR/USD Rebound

Sticky Euro-Zone Core CPI to Encourage Larger EUR/USD Rebound

David Song, Strategist

- Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Halt Four Straight Months of Negative Price Growth.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 0.8% for Second Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Even though the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hold flat in June, stickiness in the core rate of inflation may boost the appeal of the single-currency and fuel a larger rebound in EUR/USD as it curbs speculation for additional monetary support.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

The European Central Bank (ECB) may continue to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy amid the disintegration in Europe, but President Mario Draghi and Co. may largely promote a wait-and-see approach at the next interest-rate decision on July 21 as the slew of non-standard measures work their way through the real economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

M3 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY)

4.8%

4.9%

Employment (QoQ) (1Q)

--

0.3%

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)

1.5%

1.7%

The pickup in private-sector lending accompanied by signs of a stronger recovery may encourage stronger price growth in the monetary union, and a positive development may spur a bullish reaction in the Euro as market participants scale back bets for additional ECB support.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Business Climate Indicator (JUN)

0.26

0.22

Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.0%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

-4.1%

-4.4%

Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with the slowdown in household spending may encourage European firms to offer discounted prices, and a soft inflation report may drag on the single-currency as it puts increased pressure on the ECB to further support the euro-area.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish EUR Trade: CPI Report Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the report to consider a long EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish Euro trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish EUR Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Disappoint

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD stands at risk of giving back the advance from earlier this year as it fails to preserve the upward trend from December, with a closing price below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0960 (23.6% retracement) to 1.0970 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a further decline as a head-and-shoulders formation appears to be taking shape.
  • Key Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Key Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for EUR/USD heading into the report!

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

Impact that the Euro-Zone CPI has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAY

2016

05/31/2016 9:00 GMT

-0.1%

-0.1%

+16

-5

May 2016 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EUR/USD Chart

The Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped an annualized 0.1% in May following the 0.2% contraction the month prior, while the core rate of inflation advanced to 0.8% from 0.7% during the same period. The low-inflationary environment may encourage the European Central Bank (ECB) to preserve a dovish outlook for monetary policy, but the Governing Council may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach over the coming months as the non-standard measures work their way through the real economy. The initial market reaction was short-lived, with EUR/USD bouncing back from 1.1127, but the pair consolidated throughout the day to close at 1.1129.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Months of ’Chop’ Wiped Away in One Fell Swoop

GBPUSD, EURUSD & Gold Technical Outlook in a Post Brexit World

NZD/CAD Longs at Risk on Approach of Key Resistance at 9200

Brexit Aftermath Analysis Directory

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES