News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Outlook: Fed Decision Due - Will it Spark Fireworks? The $DXY edged lower on Tuesday with $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, and $USDJPY all feeling Dollar weakness. Will the Fed catch markets off-guard with another hawkish surprise tomorrow? Link to Analysis -
  • Crude oil prices are trading largely unchanged following last week's rebound as the Delta variant of Covid and Chinese regulatory measures temper the near-term demand outlook. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • USD/JPY price action has weakened sharply on the session but is searching for support. Get your $USDJPY market update from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Stocks Decline Despite Stellar Tech Earnings, All Eyes Shift to Fed $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ $NDX L…
  • $SPX put in for an impressive midday recovery this past session leaving a large lower wick. The scale of the lower wicks consistently larger than corrections off highs
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) Actual: 103.2 Previous: 110.3
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.44% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.46% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via
  • US API Stock Changes Crude -4.728M Cushing -0.126M Gasoline -6.226M Distillate -1.882M #OOTT $CL_F
  • RT @Nadex: The Macro Setup is back! Tune in as @GuyAdami, @RiskReversal, and special guest @CVecchioFX discuss: -Stocks lower ahead of big…
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 110.3
NZD/USD to Eye April High (0.7053) on Less-Dovish RBNZ

NZD/USD to Eye April High (0.7053) on Less-Dovish RBNZ

David Song, Strategist

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to Hold Official Cash Rate at 2.25%.

- Will Governor Graeme Wheeler Continue to Endorse a Wait-and-See Approach?

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision

According to a Bloomberg News survey, 10 of the 17 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to retain its current policy in June, but more of the same from Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. may encourage a further recovery in NZD/USD should the central bank largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:Even though the RBNZ keeps the door open to further support the real economy, a less-dovish policy statement may boost the appeal of the New Zealand dollar as market participants scale back speculation for lower borrowing-costs.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (1Q)



Trade Balance (APR)



Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)



The improvement in the terms of trade accompanied by the ongoing improvement in the labor market may encourage Governor Wheeler to adopt an improved outlook for the region, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may spark a bullish reaction in the New Zealand dollar should the RBNZ talk down expectations for an imminent rate-cut.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)



Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)



Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)



However, subdued wage growth paired with the slowdown in household consumption may dampen the outlook for growth and inflation, and the kiwi stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds should the RBNZ show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle.

How To TradeThis Event Risk(Video)

Bullish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Pledges to Ease Policy Further

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a long NZD/USD position.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish kiwi trade, buy NZD/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish NZD Trade: RBNZ Adopts More Balanced Tone

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZD/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD appears to have carved a higher-low at the end of May as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation from April, with the pair at risk of making another run at the April high (0.7053) should the RBNZ soften its dovish outlook for monetary policy.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7050 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7070 (23.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.6570 (100% expansion) to 0.6590 (38.2% retracement)

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

Impact that the RBNZ rate decision has had on NZD/USD during the last meeting


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



04/27/2016 21:00 GMT





April 2016 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision

NZD/USD 5-Minute


As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) retain its current policy in April, with the central bank keeping the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, but kept the door open to further support the real economy as Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. argued ‘further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.’ Moreover, the RBNZ warned ‘the outlook for global growth has deteriorated over recent months due to weaker growth in China and other emerging markets,’ and the central bank may further embark on its easing cycle over the coming months in an effort to insulate the region from the slowdown in the world economy. Nevertheless, NZD/USD climbed above the 0.6900 handle following the rate-decision, with the New Zealand dollar gaining ground throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.6956.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

Gold Prices: Finding Resistance at Old Fibonacci Support

Gold and Silver Ownership Profiles Moderate from Records

S&P 500: Shrugs off Abysmal NFPs, Undergoing Consolidation Phase

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.