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EUR/USD Rebound to Unravel on Upbeat U.S. NFP Report

EUR/USD Rebound to Unravel on Upbeat U.S. NFP Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand Below 200K for Second Consecutive Month.

- Average Hourly Earnings to Hold Steady at Annualized 2.5% for Second Month.

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Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 195K expansion in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a near-term decline in EUR/USD as the ongoing improvement in the labor market puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.

What’s Expected:


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Why Is This Event Important:

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ signs of sticky wage growth may encourage the FOMC to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

ADP Employment (FEB)190K214K
Personal Spending (JAN)0.3%0.5%
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)0.1%0.2%

The pickup in private-sector consumption may prompt U.S. firms to expand their labor force as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth, and signs of stronger job/wage growth may generate a bullish reaction in the greenback as it boosts interest-rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Employment) (FEB)--49.7
Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)--21.8%
NFIB Small Business Optimism (JAN)94.593.9

Nevertheless, waning business confidence accompanied by fears of a slowing recovery may drag on hiring, and a dismal NFP report may produce increased headwinds for the dollar as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climbs 195K+ Accompanied by Sticky Wage Growth

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

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Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD may continue to consolidate within the 2015 range following the failed run at the October high (1.1494), but the pair stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds as market participants anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more non-standard measures at the March 10 interest rate decision.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd as been net-long EUR/USD since February 26, but the ratio continues to come off of recent extremes after climbing above the +1.00 in March.
  • The ratio has narrowed to +1.01 ahead of the NFP report as 50% of traders are currently long, with short positions 10.3% lower from the previous week.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips ChangePips Change
JAN 201602/05/2015 13:30 GMT190K151K-75-58

January 2016 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls


U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased 151K after advancing a revised 262K the month prior, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 4.9% from 5.0% during the same period to mark the lowest since February 2008. Moreover, the Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.7% to meet market expectations, while Average Hourly Earnings crossed the wires at 2.5% amid forecasts for a 2.2% clip. Despite the lackluster NFP print, the ongoing improvement in labor dynamics accompanied by sticky wage growth may put increased pressure on the Fed to implement higher borrowing-costs especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ The greenback gained ground following the NFP report, with EUR/USD struggling to hold above the 1.1200 handle and ending the day at 1.1151.

Read More:

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Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.