We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #DidYouKnow the global trade volumes dropped by close to 10% amid the Great Recession. Want to know your #tradewars history? Get it here: https://t.co/f4loFVimeY https://t.co/E4GkupnRnC
  • Central bank independence has several advantages and disadvantages. Find out what they are in-depth with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/jtZTvodpCt
  • The price of oil preserves the advance following the OPEC meeting as the US and China, the two largest consumers of crude, reach a trade deal. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/g5lxDaRvWL #oott https://t.co/yeelVJU5OK
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/mk1w1DM2Rh https://t.co/rEVhCnC0vY
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia here: https://t.co/r3Ku0p9dw1 https://t.co/I1AA0UEyWq
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/o4zt4pmSzc
  • The $USDINR may fall as the Nifty 50 rises after the US and China avoided tariff escalation and Indian CPI increased at its fastest pace since July 2016 amid on onion shortage. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/iXLf98geXL https://t.co/uVwbkkkl09
  • My weekend trading video: 'A #Dow and Yuan Retreat Could Break 2019's Bullish Complacency' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/14/A-Dow-and-Yuan-Retreat-Could-Break-Break-2019s-Bullish-Complacency.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719
  • The $USD may extend declines against its ASEAN counterparts after the Fed rate decision. The Philippine Peso and Singapore Dollar are attempting key technical breakouts. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JoPLb4Oi2q https://t.co/fKzeBlWaCx
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/Mf9e1cgWmR
EUR/USD Risks More Losses on Sticky U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EUR/USD Risks More Losses on Sticky U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2016-02-19 08:00:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Pick Up for Fourth Consecutive Month.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 2.1%- Highest Reading Since July 2012.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A marked pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the dollar and spark a further decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016.

What’s Expected:


Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ while Chair Janet remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)



Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JAN)



U.S. firms may boost consumer prices amid rising input costs accompanied the rebound in household spending, and a sharp pickup in the CPI may spark a bullish reaction in the dollar as it fuels interest-rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB P)



NFIB Small Business Optimism (JAN)



Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (4Q A)



Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with the slowdown in private-sector activity may drag on price growth, and a dismal development may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: CPI Climbs to 1.3% or Higher, Core Inflation Remains Sticky

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: Inflation Report Fails to Meet Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the diverging paths for monetary policy casts a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD, the pair may continue to retrace the decline from the previous year as it breaks out of the downward trend from late-2014, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bullish formation carried over from November.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since February 1, with the ratio hitting an extreme earlier in the month as it slipped below -2.00.
  • The ratio continues to come off of recent extremes as it narrows to -1.34, with 43% of traders now long.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Impact that US CPI has had on EUR/USD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)




13:30 GMT





December 2015 U.S. Consumer Price Index


The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of market expectations as the headline reading for inflation increased an annualized 0.7% in December, while the core figure advanced to 2.1% from 2.0% in November to mark the fastest rate of growth since July 2012. A deeper look at the report showed lower energy costs continued to drag on price growth, but the Fed may stay on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2016 as Chair Janet Yellen remains upbeat on the economy. The greenback struggled to hold its ground following the mixed batch of data, with EUR/USD climbing above the 1.0930 region, but the market reaction was short-lived as the pair pulled back during the North American trade to end the day at 1.0882.

Read More:

AUDUSD Opening Range Break Pending Ahead of Aussie Employment Data

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: CAD Bull’s Day In The Sun(Levels)

GBP/USD Breaks Down on Weak U.K. Core CPI; Retail FX Still Net-Long

EUR/USD – Breakout Hangs in the Balance

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.