News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.24%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 67.30%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KhSpML2e1A
  • 🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4.25% Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.51% Silver: 0.47% Oil - US Crude: 0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/neu57eYQAY
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.44% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.43% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/H9AOMIjOnG
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision due at 10:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/0sMIVrdslY
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.10% Germany 30: -0.03% Wall Street: -0.09% FTSE 100: -0.27% France 40: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PmpWrAsueT
  • EU Bank regulators are moving closer to end ban of dividends next year
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/gaUllv1kra
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Guindos Speech due at 09:15 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
Post-ECB EUR/USD Rally to Benefit from Dovish Fed Rate-Hike

Post-ECB EUR/USD Rally to Benefit from Dovish Fed Rate-Hike

2015-12-16 16:30:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Widely Expected to Remove Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).

- Will There Be a Unanimous Vote to Implement Higher Borrowing-Costs?

Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision

Based on Fed Funds Futures, market participants are pricing a 76% probability for a rate-hike a the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December 16 interest rate decision, and the fresh updates coming out of the central bank may instill a bullish U.S. dollar outlook for 2016 should Chair Janet and Co. outline a more detailed exit-strategy.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD FOMC Rate Decision

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:Even though the FOMC remains on course to shift gears, a split decision to implement higher borrowing-costs accompanied by a downward revision in the central bank’s updated forecasts may drag on rate expectations, and the dollar stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds over the remainder of the month should the ‘data dependent’ Fed highlight a wait-and-see approach for the year ahead.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index ex. Food & Energy (YoY) (NOV)

2.0%

2.0%

Non-Farm Payrolls (NOV)

200K

211K

ADP Employment Change (NOV)

190K

217K

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ Fed officials may sound increasingly upbeat and endorse a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy as Chair Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Real Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (NOV)

--

1.6%

Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)

0.3%

0.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV)

2.3%

2.3%

However, subdued wage growth paired with the ongoing weakness in household consumption may push the FOMC to temper market expectations, and the greenback may struggle to hold its ground should the committee outline a more shallow path for interest rates.

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover the Entire FOMC Interest Rate Decision!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: Fed Lifts Benchmark Interest Rate, Warns of Higher Borrowing-Costs in 2016

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a short EUR/USD position.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: FOMC Implements ‘Dovish’ Rate-Hike, Endorses Wait-and-See Approach

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite bets for the first Fed rate-hike in nearly a decade, the near-term rally in EUR/USD following the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may gather pace in the days ahead especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be breaking out of the bearish formation carried over from back in August.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows the retail crowd remains net-short since December 3, but the ratio has come off of the recent extremes as it narrows to -1.23, with 45% of traders now long..
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Impact that the FOMC rate decision has had on EUR/USD during the last meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT

2015

10/28/2015 18:00 GMT

0.25%

0.25%

-165

-144

October 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision

Post-ECB EUR/USD Rally to Benefit from Dovish Fed Rate-Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) once again voted 9-1 to retain its current policy in October, with Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissenting against the majority to raise the benchmark interest rate. Nevertheless, it seems as though the Fed may stay on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015 as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ while Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon. The greenback strengthened following the rate decision, with EUR/USD dipping below the 1.1000 handle to end the North American trade at 1.0921.

*As we approach the holidays and thus illiquid markets, it's worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the "Traits of Successful Traders."

Three Factors Warn of Perfect Storm in FX Markets - Caution Advised

Read More:

Price & Time: S&P 500: Transparency Run Amok?

Trade Setups in USD-pairs Ahead of FOMC

Price & Time: USD/CAD – Pitchfork Extravaganza

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: The 100-DMA Acts As a Bullish Support

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES