News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • NY Fed's GDP Nowcast model sees US Q1 GDP at 6.9% vs. 6.78% in prior week. #Fed $USD
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/zOiAQGMNzY
  • $EURGBP has strengthened today, rising back above the 0.8700 level for the first time in a week. The pair is trading near the highs set in mid April and late February. $EUR $GBP https://t.co/RSkMhvLQEQ
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/OODkBySEaS
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.66% Wall Street: 0.42% FTSE 100: -0.13% France 40: -0.28% Germany 30: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0PTPoUF2Jz
  • #Gold has slipped to its lowest level since Tuesday today. After meeting resistance around 1,795 this morning, the precious metal fell back to trade near the 1,770 level. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/tOiSk0n6t5
  • Biden’s proposed tax hike sees investors unload profitable assets. Bitcoin intensifies losses, falls below $50,000. Get your $btc market update from @Daniela here:https://t.co/pkHFvFotbz https://t.co/1R7T4HpfQX
  • With the US data beating expectations, we have all of the major developed world economies reporting April PMIs with a significant improvement in economic activity for the current month. Seems only black swans and regulations can stop the train now... https://t.co/HpOW5ul5YW
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.92% Gold: -0.24% Silver: -0.29% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ck2iRms5Hp
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 14:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
ECB QE Adjustment & Deposit Rate-Cut to Fuel EUR/USD Losses

ECB QE Adjustment & Deposit Rate-Cut to Fuel EUR/USD Losses

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- European Central Bank (ECB) to Adjust QE Program & Reduce Deposit-Rate.

- Will ECB President Mario Draghi Keep the Door Open to Expand Policy Further?

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fuel a further decline in EUR/USD amid speculation for additional monetary support but, heavy expectations for a meaningful announcement may ultimately trigger a short-squeeze in the exchange rate should the central bank disappoint.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD ECB

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:Beyond bets for a meaningful adjust to the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) program, market participants are looking for a further reduction in the central bank’s deposit-rate as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. Efforts to further insulate the monetary union may push EUR/USD to give back the advance from the March low (1.0461) amid the deviating paths for monetary policy.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (NOV A)

1.1%

0.9%

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q A)

1.7%

1.6%

Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-0.1%

The disinflationary environment accompanied by the weakening outlook for global growth may encourage the Governing Council to enlist more policy tools to shore up the real economy, and the Euro stands at risk of facing additional headwinds in 2016 should the central bank keep the door open to further embark on its easing cycle.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Economic Confidence (NOV)

105.9

106.1

M3 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)

4.9%

5.3%

Markit Purchasing Manger Index- Composite (NOV P)

54.0

54.4

Nevertheless, improved confidence paired with the pickup in lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) may prompt the ECB to take a more patient approach as the non-standard measures work their way through the real economy, and the central bank may opt to easing policy further in 2016 as there appears to be a sustainable recovery taking shape in the monetary union.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Coverage of the Entire ECB Rate Decision!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Expands/Extends QE & Cuts Deposit-Rate

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy announcement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish EUR Trade: Central Bank President Draghi Attempts to Buy More Time

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The March (1.0461) and April low (1.0519) remain in focus for EUR/USD as the pair fails to retain the bullish formations from earlier this year but, there appears to be a disconnect with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the oscillator holds above oversold territory despite the decline in price.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows the retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD since November 19, but the ratio continues to come off of recent extremes as it narrows to +1.11, with 53% of traders now long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Impact that the ECB rate decision has had on EUR/USD during the last meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

OCT 2015

10/22/2015 11:45 & 12:30 GMT

0.05%

0.05%

-87

-207

October 2015 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

EUR/USD Chart

Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) stuck to its current policy in October, the Governing Council showed a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle as the central bank opened the door for a further reduction in deposit-rate. As the ECB pledges to re-examine its non-standard measures, the central bank may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory in an efforts to further insulate the monetary union . The Euro sold off as the ECB removed the floor on interest rates, with EUR/USD breaking below the 1.1200 handle following the interest rate decision to close the day at 1.1107.

*As we approach the holidays and thus illiquid markets, it's worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the "Traits of Successful Traders."

Three Factors Warn of Perfect Storm in FX Markets - Caution Advised

Read More:

USD/JPY Testing Uptrend Resistance- Key NFP Levels

GBP Searches for Support- EUR/USD Outlook Mired by ECB Bets

COT - Gold Ownership Profile Similar to Prior Price Lows

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: USD Set To Outperform On Center Stage?

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bearish Wedge Pattern Running Out of Real Estate

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES