News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.91% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.96% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HWVSmqaiYF
  • The amount of breakouts the #USD saw against its major peers this week was fairly impressive Lots of opportunities here for reversing dominant downtrends that have been prevailing for about 14-15 months Stay tuned for my USD weekly technical outlook coming out this weekend!
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.19% Silver: -0.41% Gold: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J6vFrm0Psb
  • Post-Fed, plunging commodity prices are weighing down growth-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/RwM9qu0Zjv https://t.co/u6WFpqfcdZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 85.22%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 70.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/O3dA4qOEid
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% FTSE 100: 0.09% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MFEjkHP34f
  • Fed's Kashkari: Maximum employment means at the very least back to pre-COVID levels of employment
  • Fed's Kashkari: - I am opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023 - The labor market is still in a deep hole; it will take some time to get people reattached to the work force
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The Fed's interest rate dot plot has provided too-hawkish guidance in the past, I am in favor of getting rid of it - I don't believe the Delta variant of COVID will force the US to return to lockdown
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The Fed is in a decent financial position, therefore it is fine to talk about tapering monthly asset purchases - I am not seeing evidence of unanchored inflation expectations, but if that does occur then we would need to adjust
GBP/USD Rebound to Succumb to Dismal U.K. Jobless Claims Report

GBP/USD Rebound to Succumb to Dismal U.K. Jobless Claims Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.K. Jobless Claims to Increase for Third-Consecutive Month.

- ILO Unemployment Rate to Hold Steady at 5.4%- Lowest Since 2008.

Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change

Another 1.4K expansion in U.K. Jobless Claims accompanied by slower wage growth may spur a bearish reaction in the British Pound and generate fresh monthly lows in GBP/USD as it raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to further delay its normalization cycle.

What’s Expected:

GBP/USD UK Jobless Claims

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

U.K. data prints pointing to slower growth may drag on interest rate expectations, and BoE Governor Mark Carney may continue to highlight a cautious outlook for the region amid the easing cycle in the euro-area, while its U.S. counterpart stands ready and willing to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2015.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Mortgage Approvals (SEP)

72.4K

2..4%

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q A)

2.4%

2.3%

CBI Business Optimism (OCT)

2

-12

Waning confidence paired with the slowdown in private-sector credit may drag on the labor market, and a dismal employment report may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Trade Balance (SEP)

-3.000B

-1.353B

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (SEP)

0.6%

0.8%

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (SEP)

0.4%

1.7%

Nevertheless, improved demand from home and abroad may encourage U.K. firms to boost their work-force, and a positive development may push the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to remove the record-low interest rate in 2016 as the central bank sees a growing risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Employment Report Drags on Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bullish GBP Trade: Job/Wage Growth Exceed Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBPUSD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • After carving a lower-high in October, downside targets remain in focus for GBP/USD especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely retains the bearish formation carried over from back in May.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since August 21, but the ratio remains off of recent extremes as it narrows to +1.96%, with 66% of traders long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.5460 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5508 (October high)
  • Interim Support: 1.4860 (78.6% retracement) to 1.4910 (61.8% retracement)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Impact that the U.K. Jobless Claims Change has had on GBP during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP

2015

10/14/2015 08:30 GMT

-2.2K

4.6K

+44

+173

September 2015 U.K. Jobless Claims Change

GBP/USD Chart

U.K. Jobless Claims unexpectedly increased another 4.6K in September after climbing 1.2K the month prior, while the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) gauge for unemployment slipped to a 7-year low of 5.4% during the three-months through August. Moreover, average weekly earnings cooled to an annualized 2.8% from 2.9% in August, and the slowdown in job/wage growth may push the Bank of England (BoE) to further delay its normalization cycle amid the weakening outlook for global growth. The bearish reaction in GBP/USD was short-lived, with the pound-dollar bouncing from the 1.5300 handle to end the day at 1.5475.

Read More:

COT - Silver Over Owned

EUR/USD Continues to Chip Away April Rebound Ahead of Draghi Comments

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: From One Trend to Another

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES