News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.70% Oil - US Crude: -1.32% Silver: -1.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4xYTddorjQ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.28%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 64.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7OJ5FXh4rF
  • another nasty week in Cable $GBPUSD but most of that sell-off was Monday and Tuesday, after which support came into play. 2712 has now helped to hold the lows for three (going on four) days - even as $USD rally has continued https://t.co/kKURzmx61S https://t.co/eHZZ9rZC9X
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.32% Silver: -0.93% Oil - US Crude: -1.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fdLE2SYbFA
  • While risks may be starting to skew to the upside in Brexit negotiations, GBP/USD continues to trade in choppy fashion, with pullbacks finding support at 1.2720-30. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/TOrUJKapR1 https://t.co/txDbUikOFZ
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.21% US 500: -0.30% Wall Street: -0.50% France 40: -1.37% Germany 30: -1.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/eOrhf8Ozhy
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 13:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (AUG) Actual: 0.4% Expected: 1.2% Previous: 2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders MoM (AUG) Actual: 0.4% Expected: 1.5% Previous: 11.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.29%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 64.27%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Pr6fmzDXyZ
Upbeat RBA to Fuel AUD/USD Advance; 0.7220-40 Resistance in Focus

Upbeat RBA to Fuel AUD/USD Advance; 0.7220-40 Resistance in Focus

2015-10-05 21:00:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Widely Anticipated to Keep Cash Rate at 2.00%.

- Will Governor Glenn Stevens Continue to Endorse Wait-and-See Approach?

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 27 economists polled expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.00%, and more of the same from Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. may fuel a larger rebound in AUD/USD as market participants scale back bets for lower borrowing-costs.

What’s Expected:

Upbeat RBA to Fuel AUD/USD Advance; 0.7220-40 Resistance in Focus

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite below-trend growth, the RBA may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach as the depreciation in the local currency is ‘expected to support growth, particularly through a larger contribution from net service exports,’ and the central bank may stick to the sidelines throughout 2015 as the rate cuts from earlier this year continue to work their way through the real economy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

0.4%

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (AUG)

0.5%

0.6%

Employment Change (AUG)

5.0K

17.4K

The pickup in private-sector consumption accompanied by the ongoing improvement in the labor market may encourage Governor Stevens to adopt an improved outlook for the region, and the central bank head may talk down bets for another rate cut as the depreciation in the AUD/USD exchange rate helps to balance the risks the region.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Building Approvals (MoM) (AUG)

-2.0%

-6.9%

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

0.4%

0.2%

Private Capital Expenditure (2Q)

-2.5%

-4.0%

However, the RBA may toughen the verbal intervention on the local currency & show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle as the risk for a slower recovery, and a dovish shift in the central bank outlook may spark a short-term selloff in the aussie-dollar amid the deviating paths for monetary policy.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: RBA Preserves Wait-and-See Approach

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the rate decision for a potential long AUD/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish AUD Trade: Governor Stevens Adopts Dovish Outlook or Policy

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in reverse.

Read More:

AUD/USD Risk Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA; Sept. High on Tap?

October Forex Seasonality Foresees Disappointing US Dollar Performance

Potential Price Targets For The Release

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may face a larger rebound in the days ahead following the failed attempt to test the September opening range; waiting for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to break out of the bearish formation from back in May to provide conviction/confirmation for a more meaningful recovery.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 15, but the ratio appears to be working its way back towards recent extremes as it widens to +2.82, with 74% of traders long.
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7220 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7240 (100% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.6830 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6860 (61.8% expansion)

Impact that the RBA Interest Rate decision has had on AUD during the last meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP 2015

09/01/2015 4:30 GMT

2.00%

2.00%

-6

-22

September 2015 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

AUD/USD Chart

Once again, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the benchmark rate at the record-low of 2.00%, with Governor Glenn Stevens largely endorsing a wait-and-see approach as the rate cuts from earlier this year continue to work their way through the real economy. Despite the weakening outlook for global growth, it seems the RBA will stick to the sidelines throughout 2015 as Governor Glenn Stevens anticipates the depreciation in the local currency to further insulate the region. The initial uptick in the Australian dollar was short-lived, with AUD/USD grinding lower throughout the Asian-Pacific trade to end the session at 0.7108.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES