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USD/CAD to Test Range on Upbeat Canada Retail Sales Report

USD/CAD to Test Range on Upbeat Canada Retail Sales Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Canada Retail Sales to Increase for Third Straight Month.

- Sales ex Auto to Rise for Fifth Time in Last Seven Months .

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Canada Retail Sales

A further expansion in Canada Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the loonie and threaten the range-bound price action in USD/CAD as boosts the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

USD/CAD Canada Retail Sales

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the technical recession in Canada, data prints pointing to a marked recovery in the third-quarter may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout 2015, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to conclude its easing cycle in the year ahead as Governor Stephen Poloz sees the economy on a firmer footing.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Housing Starts (AUG)

190.5K

216.9K

Net Change in Employment (AUG)

-5.0K

12.0K

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q)

-1.0%

-0.5%

Signs of a more meaningful recovery accompanied by the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a strong boost for private consumption, and a positive development may spur a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as it curbs expectations for a further reduction in the benchmark interest rate.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUL)

0.8%

0.0%

Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

0.7%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

1.3%

1.3%

In contrast, a soft retail sales report may fuel fears for a more slowdown in Canada, and a dismal print may prompt the central bank to further insulate the real economy in an effort to pull the region out of the technical recession.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish CAD Trade: Retail Sales Expands Another 0.8% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish CAD Trade: Private-Sector Consumption Fails to Meet Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Charts

Chart - Created by David Song

  • Long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains bullish amid the failed test of the August low (1.2950), but the pair may continue to consolidate within a wedge/triangle formation as market participants weigh the outlook for .
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd has flipped back to net-short USD/CAD on September 18, with the ratio approaching recent extremes as it slips to -2.50 as 28% of traders are long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3320 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3352 (August high)
  • Interim Support: 1.2940 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2930 (61.8% expansion)

Read More:

GBPJPY Reversal Setup- Short Scalps Eye 182

Gold Post-Fed Rally Continues to Unravel: $1100 Support in Focus

Impact that Canada Retail Sales has had on USD/CAD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUN

2015

08/21/2015

12:30 GMT

0.2%

0.6%

-17

+80

June 2015 Canada Retail Sales

USD/CAD Chart

Canada Retail Sales exceeded market expectations as household spending increased 0.6% in June following a revised 0.9% expansion the month prior. A deeper look at the report showed increased demand for electronics/appliances accompanied by higher gasoline receipts, but discretionary spending on clothing slipped 0.4% in June. Despite the better-than-expected prints, the Bank of Canada (BoC) may see scope to further support the region as Governor Stephen Poloz continues to monitor the impact of lower oil prices on the real economy. The initial market reaction was short-lived, with USD/CAD snapping back above the 1.3100 handle during the North American trade to end the day at 1.3179.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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