News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.16% Gold: -0.87% Silver: -1.70% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/2ZM2rM1kJN
  • Well one $NDX trendline is dead and gone after today's rout and secondary support is coming up quick near 12,760 https://t.co/hJSPch42Zm
  • Wall Street IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Wall Street for the first time since Mar 05, 2021 when Wall Street traded near 31,529.20. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Wall Street weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zeXYkoKVW6
  • Nasdaq extends its selloff as tech stocks slide further due to surging bond yields. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/eEeeFpFYiF https://t.co/AFfRIHZMgr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.05%, while traders in GBP/USD are at opposite extremes with 67.50%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dhdLOMU0TX
  • Nasdaq Extends Slide, Bond Yields Spike on Fed Taper Fears -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/12/nasdaq-extends-slide-bond-yields-spike-on-fed-taper-fears.html #StockMarket $NDX $QQQ https://t.co/e08fA8Wy73
  • US Treasury Department: - U.S. ran record $1.9 trillion budget deficit in first 7 months of FY2021 - Federal outlays climbed 22% to $4.1 trillion from Oct. through April - Revenues rose 16%, reflecting 2020 tax deferrals
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.28% Germany 30: -0.28% France 40: -0.34% Wall Street: -1.41% US 500: -1.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PfhSpL5XsO
  • 🇺🇸 Monthly Budget Statement (APR) Actual: $-226B Expected: $-220B Previous: $-660B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • We've taken out short-term support on $SPX. Bigger levels below though. For this index, it is 4,000. For the Nasdaq 100, which has a floor more immediately at hand, it is 13,000 https://t.co/KeHxTw81Ht
Pickup in U.K. Retail Sales to Fuel GBP/USD Breakout

Pickup in U.K. Retail Sales to Fuel GBP/USD Breakout

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.K. Retail Sales to Increase for Fifth Time in Last Seven-Months.

- Will a Rebound in Private-Sector Consumption Encourage a Greater Dissent Within the BoE?

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales

A 0.4% rebound in U.K. Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the British Pound and fuel the near-term breakout in GBP/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to raise the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.

What’s Expected:

GBP/USD UK Retail Sales

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Positive data prints coming out of the U.K. economy may highlight a tightening race between the BoE/Fed to normalize monetary policy, and GBP/USD may continue to retrace the decline from July 2014 should the fundamental developments spur a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Average Hourly Earnings ex. Bonus (3MoY) (JUN)

2.8%

2.8%

Jobless Claims Change (JUL)

1.0K

-4.9K

Net Consumer Credit (JUN)

1.1B

1.2B

Stronger wage growth paired with the expansion in private-sector credit may boost household spending in the U.K., and a strong rebound in retail sales may generate fresh monthly highs in GBP/USD as market participants ramp up expectations for a BoE rate hike.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL)

0.9%

1.2%

Producer Price Index Core- Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

0.2%

0.3%

GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL)

5

4

However, higher prices along with narrowing confidence may drag on consumer spending, and a dismal print may drag on the British Pound and spur a further delay of the BoE’s normalization cycle as the majority continues to look for a stronger recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Rebounds 0.4% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long British Pound trade.
  • If market reaction favors bullish sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Household Spending Falls Short of Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction.

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ongoing closes above former-range resistance may highlight a further advance in GBP/USD especially as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows increased volatility in position as the retain-crowd has flipped back to net-long on GBP/USD, with the ratio climbing to +1.16 as 53% of traders are long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.5750 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5780 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.5330 (78.6% retracement) to 1.5350 (50% retracement)

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/CAD Holding Up Well

Scalping NZDUSD Opening Range- 6630 Resistance Remains Key Hurdle

Impact that the U.K. Retail Sales report has had on GBP during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUN 2015

07/23/2015 8:30 GMT

0.4%

-0.2%

-51

-141

June 2015 U.K. Retail Sales

GBP/USD Chart

U.K. Retail Sales unexpected contracted 0.2% in June after expanding 0.2% the month prior. A deeper look at the report showed demand for Household Goods slipped 0.9% from the previous month to lead the decline, while discretionary spending on Clothing & Footwear increased 0.8% after contracting 1.5% in May. Despite the recent weakness in household consumption, the Bank of England (BoE) may stay on course to normalize monetary policy as Governor Mark Carney anticipates a stronger recovery to emerge in the second-half of 2015. The sterling struggled to hold its ground following the worse-than-expected print, with GBP/USD slipping below the 1.5625 region to end the day at 1.5510.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES