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EUR/USD Rally to Fizzle on Strong U.S. Retail Sales

EUR/USD Rally to Fizzle on Strong U.S. Retail Sales

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Rebound Following the Unexpected Contraction in June.

- Household Spending Has Failed to Grow Five Out of the Past Seven-Months.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

A 0.6% rebound in U.S. Retail Sales may boost demand for the greenback and spur a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as a pickup in private-sector consumption fuels expectations for a Fed rate hike at the September 17 interest rate decision.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Retail Sales

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, data pointing to a stronger recovery may keep the Fed on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015 especially as the central bank sees the U.S. economy approaching full-employment, but another unexpected slowdown in household spending may further delay the normalization cycle as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. struggle to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Consumer Credit (JUN)



Labor Market Conditions Index (JUL)



Unemployment Rate (JUL)



The expansion in private-sector credit along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a marked rebound in retail sales, and the Fed may show a greater willingness to lift the benchmark interest rate off the record-low as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)



Employment Cost Index (2Q)



Consumer Confidence (JUL)



However, waning confidence paired with subdued wage growth may drag on consumption, and another dismal sales report may undermine the Fed’s expectations for a stronger recovery, which could ultimately lead to a further delay of the normalization cycle.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 0.6% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Private-Sector Consumption Continues to Disappoint

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish as the Fed remains on course to normalize policy, but the pair may continue to consolidate over the near-term as it retains the triangle/wedge formation from earlier this year.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, but the ratio is approaching extremes as it slips to -2.63, with 28% of traders long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/MXN - Still Up In The Air

EUR/USD Breaks Out- Targets to Watch Ahead of Greek Vote, 2Q GDP

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



07/14/2015 12:30 GMT





June 2015 U.S. Advance Retail Sales


U.S. Retail Sales unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June, while the previous month’s print was also revised lower to reflect a 1.0% increase from an initial print of 1.2%. The decline was largely driven by a 1.6% in demand for future, while discretionary spending on clothing dipped 1.5% during the same period. Even though the Federal Reserve remains on course to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015, the ongoing weakness in private-sector consumption may further delay the normalization cycle as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation. Nevertheless, the initial market reaction was short-lived, with EUR/USD quickly snapping back from 1.1085, with the pair consolidating throughout the North American trade to end the day at 1.1006.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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