News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
EUR/USD to Eye 1.0800 Support on Strong NFP Report

EUR/USD to Eye 1.0800 Support on Strong NFP Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand 200+K for Third Consecutive Month.

- Unemployment Rate to Hold at Annualized 5.3%- Lowest Since 2008.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 225K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may spur greater demand for the greenback and spark a near-term sell-off in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data heighten speculation for a Fed rate hike at the September 17 meeting.

What’s Expected:


Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the unanimous vote to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) at the July 29 meeting, signs of a stronger recovery may generate a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and we may see a growing number of central bank officials talk up bets for a September liftoff should the employment report boost the outlook for growth and inflation.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




ISM Non-Manufacturing (JUL)



Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)



Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)



The ongoing expansion in service-based activity paired with pickup in the housing market may encourage a strong NFP print, and a better-than-expected release may spur a near-term rally in the greenback as it boosts interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




ADP Employment Change (JUL)



NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)



However, waning business sentiment along with the ongoing weakness in private-sector spending may drag on job growth, and a dismal employment report may encourage the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle especially as Chair Janet Yellen looks for a further improvement in labor dynamics.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Increases 225K or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish amid the divergence in the policy outlook, but the pair may continue to consolidate over the near-term as it remains stuck in the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, but the ratio appears to be working its way back towards recent extremes as it slips to -1.53 as 39% of traders are long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUN 2015

07/02/2015 12:30 GMT





June 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD to Eye 1.0800 Support on Strong NFP Report

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls(NFP) increased 223K in June following a revised 254K expansion the month prior, while the unemployment rate narrowed to an annualized 5.3% from 5.5% to mark the lowest reading since April 2008. However, the downtick in the jobless rate was accompanied by a decline in labor force participation as the rate slipped to 62.6% from 62.9% in June, while wage growth missed market estimates and unexpectedly slowed to 2.0% from 2.3% during the same period. Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, the ongoing slack in the real economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to further delay its normalization cycle as the central bank remains in no rush to remove its highly accommodative policy stance. The bearish reaction in the dollar failed to gather pace, with EUR/USD struggling to hold above the 1.1100 handle throughout the North American session to end the day at 1.1082.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.