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Dismal US Durable Goods Report to Delay Fed Liftoff? EURUSD Eyes 1.15

Dismal US Durable Goods Report to Delay Fed Liftoff? EURUSD Eyes 1.15

David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Contract for Second Consecutive Month.

- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts to Rebound 0.5%.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Another 1.0% contract in demand U.S. Durable Goods may dampen the appeal of the greenback and generate a near-term advance in EUR/USD as ongoing slack in the real economy raises the risk for a further delay in the Fed’s liftoff.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Durable Goods Orders

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Why Is This Event Important:

Fears of a slower recovery may encourage a growing number of Fed officials to adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy, and we may see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2015 in order to mitigate the downside risks for growth and inflation.

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Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Housing Starts (MAY)



Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)



Factory Orders (APR)



The Fed may continue to trim the 2015 GDP forecast amid the mixed batch of data coming out of the U.S. economy, and another contraction in orders for large-ticket items may push the central bank to further delay the normalization cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAY)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)



Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAY)



On the other hand, discounted prices paired with the pickup in private-sector wages may foster greater demand for U.S. Durable Goods, and a positive development may keep the Fed on course to raise the benchmark interest rate later this year as the central bank remains confident in achieving its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: Orders Contract Another 1.0% or Greater

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Exceed Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish amid the deviation in the policy outlook, but the single currency remains at risk for a relief bounce as European policy makers work to keep Greece within the monetary union.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio holding near extremes as it sits at -2.12.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (61.8% expansion) to 1.1532 (February high)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 (50% retracement)

Read More:

COT-Yen Positioning is Extreme

Price & Time: EUR/USD Double Top or About to Breakout?

Impact that the U.S. Durable Goods report has had on EUR/USD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



05/26/2015 12:30 GMT





February 2015 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Dismal US Durable Goods Report to Delay Fed Liftoff? EURUSD Eyes 1.15

Orders for U.S. Durable Goods slipped 0.5% in April after expanding a revised 5.1% the month prior, while Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for future business investments, increased 1.0% during the same period amid forecasts for a 0.3% expansion. A deeper look at the report showed demand for Transportation equipment slipped 0.3% during the month, with orders for electrical equipment falling 0.6%, while demand for machinery increased another 1.0% after climbing 0.1% in March. Despite the limited market reaction to mixed batch of data, the greenback gained ground throughout the North American trade, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.0900 handle to end the day at 1.0869.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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