News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • PBoC sets Yuan reference rate at 6.6725 against the US Dollar - BBG
  • #Silver retracing its losses earlier in the session as price carves out a Bear Flag pattern With resistance at $25 holding firm, further losses appear in the offing A daily close below the 21-DMA (24.20) may open the door for a retest of 61.8% Fib support (21.74) $SLVR $SLV https://t.co/rCl3Ms3FB3
  • The Nasdaq 100 index looks set to pull back amid bearish momentum in the near term. The 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line may serve as an immediate support. Get your #equities update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/5Axsg6gAdd https://t.co/rToHnPLSeS
  • $GBPUSD the outlier early in the session, up marginally as UK-EU Brexit negotiators extend talks until October 28 https://t.co/ey92YW4RJw
  • #CrudeOil down 1.95% on the back of tightening #COVID19 restrictions in several European nations $EURUSD nudging marginally lower https://t.co/PUWTfKl08f https://t.co/XuyQOzV6sj
  • Market Snapshot Broad risk-off tilt to kick-off APAC trade #Gold and #CrudeOil prices plunging lower alongside the risk-sensitive $AUDUSD Haven-linked $JPY and $USD moving higher against their major counterparts
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.504%) S&P 500 (-0.536%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.484%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/zSCf8azESa
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET on DailyFX! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/ZJOEtpGUIq https://t.co/tJWOXZCoBw
EUR/USD to Eye May High on Dismal U.S. Retail Sales Report

EUR/USD to Eye May High on Dismal U.S. Retail Sales Report

2015-06-11 08:00:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Rebound After Holding Flat in April.

- Household Spending Has Failed to Meet Market Forecast the Last Five Straight Prints.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

A 1.2% rebound in U.S. Retail Sales may increase the appeal of the greenback and highlight a more bearish outlook for EUR/USD as the Fed remains on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Retail Sales

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of a stronger recovery may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the June 17 interest rate decision, and expectations for higher borrowing-costs may spur a resumption of the long-term bullish USD trend as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Credit (APR)

$16.000B

$20.541B

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAY)

2.2%

2.3%

Non-Farm Payrolls (MAY)

226K

280K

The pickup in job/wage growth along with the ongoing expansion in private-sector credit may encourage a marked rebound in household consumption, and an upbeat print may trigger a bullish reaction in the greenback as it boosts interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)

1.7%

1.8%

Personal Consumption (1Q P)

2.0%

1.8%

U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)

95.9

88.6

Nevertheless, retail sales may continue to disappoint amid easing discounts paired with waning consumer confidence, and another weaker-than-expected report may drag on the dollar as it raises the for a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 1.2% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Household Spending Continues to Disappoint

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD appears to be stuck in a long-term wedge/triangle formation following the failed attempt to test the February high back in May; remains at risk for range-bound prices as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since May 19, with the ratio currently standing at -2.17.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (61.8% expansion) to 1.1532 (February high)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 (50% retracement)

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY Backtest or Something More?

USDCAD Breakdown at Initial Support- Short Scalps Favored Sub 1.24

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

APR

2014

05/13/2014 12:30 GMT

0.2%

0.0%

+52

+86

April 2015 U.S. Advance Retail Sales

EUR/USD Chart

U.S. Retail Sales unexpectedly held flat in April following a revised 1.1% advance the month prior. A deeper look at the report showed a 2.2% decline in department stores sales, which was accompanied by a 0.7% decline in gasoline receipts, while discretionary spending on clothing increased another 0.2% after climbing 0.9% in March. The ongoing in private-sector consumption dragged on the greenback, with EURUSD clearing the 1.1300 handle to end the North American trade at 1.1353.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES