News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.05% Wall Street: -0.07% US 500: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Rwina1eAS0
  • $EURUSD has produced two consecutive inside day candles thus far in Monday trade. The three-day range as a percentage of spot is the smallest since February 20, 2020 https://t.co/G5W3j5kU8K
  • $EURCHF has continued to weaken today, dropping below the 1.1000 level to trade at its lowest point since the beginning of March. $EUR $CHF https://t.co/yHxsXK2VG1
  • Ethereum continues to post new highs. Ripple accelerates higher over the weekend. Get your cryptocurrency market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/KtaksFYfKa https://t.co/mMBSIsJhtl
  • US Indices are all currently trading in the red today, with small caps leading the decline. DOW -0.21% NDX -0.50% SPX -0.15% RUT -0.86% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • While most people are looking to the likes of GBPUSD (good range conditions) or USDJPY (tripped up in its reversal), the most impressive Dollar-based major for run in my book is $USDINR which earned a serious break and on a 5-day climb https://t.co/uVzpgNXPn1
  • #Silver has headed lower today, dropping from around 25.20 back below the 25.00 level. The metal hit an intraday low around 24.70, its lowest point in nearly a week. $XAG #SLV https://t.co/Aa0d1ZESZn
  • RT @WillZalatoris: If you’re ever in need of a caddie again let me know. I’ll be better this time. I’m always available for you, Mr. Gilmo…
  • Technical Levels for US #Dollar, $GBPUSD, $USDCAD, $AUDUSD & #Gold - (Webinar Archive) - https://t.co/QziUbMdBZL
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.25% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.22% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.20% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/EEHdyNbfqh
USD/CAD Advance Vulnerable to Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)

USD/CAD Advance Vulnerable to Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Bank of Canada (BoC) to Keep Benchmark Interest Rate on Hold for Third-Consecutive Meeting.

- Will Governor Stephen Poloz Continue to Highlight an Improved Outlook?

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision may boost the appeal of the loonie and spur a pullback in USD/CAD should the central bank adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

USD/CAD BoC

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Expectations for a stronger recovery may encourage BoC Governor Stephen Poloz to highlight an improved outlook for the region, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to move away from its wait-and-see approach as it anticipates the positive dynamics underling the real economy to ‘reassert themselves during the second quarter, and to do so clearly in the second half of the year.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.7%

Unemployment Rate (APR)

6.9%

6.8%

Ivey Purchasing Manager Index s.a. (APR)

49.2

58.2

The BoC may release a more hawkish statement amid the pickup in private-sector activity, and a material shift in the forward-guidance may produce a near-term correction in USD/CAD as market participants boost the interest rate outlook.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

1.0%

0.8%

New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

1.3%

1.2%

International Merchandise Trade (MAR)

-0.80B

-3.02B

However, slowing inflation paired with the weakness in global trade may push the BoC to largely retain its current policy throughout 2015, and the Canadian dollar may continue to underperform against its U.S. counterpart should Governor Poloz endorse a neutral stance for monetary policy.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish CAD Trade: BoC Turns Increasingly Upbeat & Adopts Hawkish Tone

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision for a potential short USD/CAD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish CAD Trade: Governor Poloz Endorses Wait-and-See Approach

  • Need green, five-minute candle to consider a long USD/CAD position.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.

Read More:

USD/JPY Marks First Overbought Signal in 2015; Retail Turns Net-Short

USDCAD Scalps Faces 1.25 Key Resistance Ahead of BoC, GDP

Potential Price Targets For The Release

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the move back above former support around 1.2360 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2380 (50% retracement), need a break of the triangle/wedge formation carried over from March to favor a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD since May 22, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.40.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2480 (61.8% retracement) to 1.2500 pivot (trendline resistance)
  • Interim Support: 1.2110 (61.8% retracement) to 1.2130 (23.6% retracement)

Impact that the BOC Interest Rate decision has had on CAD during the last meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

APR 2015

04/15/2015 14:00 GMT

0.75%

0.75%

-108

-245

April 2015 Bank of Canada(BOC) Interest Rate Decision

USD/CAD Chart

As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% in April. Despite the neutral stance, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz appears to be turning increasingly optimistic towards the region as the central bank head looks through the recent weakness in the real economy and anticipates a stronger recovery in the second-quarter of 2015. The Canadian Dollar strengthened following the less-dovish statement, with USD/CAD slipping below the 1.2300 handle to end the day at 1.2273.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES