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Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Dampen USD, Fed Outlook

Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Dampen USD, Fed Outlook

2015-05-13 08:00:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Rise for Second-Consecutive Month.

- Household Spending Has Failed to Meet Market Forecast the Last Four Straight Prints.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

Another 0.2% rise in U.S. Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a larger pullback in EUR/USD as Fed officials look for a faster rate of growth in the second-quarter of 2015.

What’s Expected:

Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Dampen USD, Fed Outlook

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Why Is This Event Important:

The Fed may keep the door open for a mid-2015 as the central bank anticipates a pickup in economic activity, and signs of a stronger recovery may foster a more bullish outlook for the greenback as the committee remains on course to normalize monetary policy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Unemployment Rate (APR)



Consumer Credit (MAR)



U of Michigan Confidence (APR A)



The expansion in private-sector credit along with the pickup in household confidence may generate a strong retail sales report, and a better-than-expected print may push EUR/USD back towards the 1.1000 region as it boosts interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (APR)



Personal Income (MAR)



Consumer Price Index Core (MAR)



Nevertheless, U.S. households may continue to scale back on spending amid easing discounts paired with stagnant wage growth, and a dismal figure may spur a bearish reaction in the greenback as it raises the risk for a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Spending Climbs 0.2% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Household Consumption Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD remains at risk for a further advance as the bullish momentum on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to take shape.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since April 9, with the ratio currently standing at -1.88.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1520 (61.8% expansion) to 1.1532 (February high)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 (50% retracement)

Read More:

COT-Position Flip in Swiss Francs

Scalp Webinar: EURUSD Eyes Support- May Opening Range Setups in Focus

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



04/14/2014 12:30 GMT





March 2014 U.S. Advance Retail Sales


Despite the weaker-than-expected print, U.S. Retail Sales increased 0.9% in March to end the longest stretch of decline since 2012. The rise was largely driven by greater demand for motor vehicles and parts, while discretionary spending on clothing increased 1.2% during the same period after holding flat in February. Even though the Fed remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), the ongoing weakness in private-sector consumption, one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation, may further delay the Fed’s normalization cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. EUR/USD briefly climbed above the 1.0700 handle following the lackluster release, but the pair consolidated throughout the North American trade to end the day at 1.0624.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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