News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes due at 01:30 GMT (15min)
  • Nasdaq 100 Hits All-Time High, Hang Seng and ASX 200 May Follow
  • RT @FxWestwater: Hello traders! The Weekly Commodities Trading Prep webinar will be pushed 24 hours to Wednesday 2:00 GMT/10:00 pm EST. Joi…
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:
  • Even in quiet market conditions, you can always find some activity #Philippine stock index (PSEi) up about 13.5% from late May low Expectations of easing lockdowns in the Manila capital region have been a fundamental driver Falling Wedge breakout facing the 61.8% Fib at 6916
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short USD/JPY for the first time since Jun 04, 2021 when USD/JPY traded near 109.52. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY strength.
  • Interesting tone update from the Bank of Indonesia ahead of this week's rate decision The CB said yesterday that it sees Rupiah weakening as 'still reasonable' But. it will maintain measures to stabilize the exchange rate See my tech update here -
  • The US Dollar continues to see varied performance against ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD is consolidating. USD/THB may bounce. USD/IDR and USD/PHP could continue lower.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • RT @FxWestwater: $AUDUSD Eyes RBA Minutes After Iron Ore Rally Fails to Lift Aussie Dollar Link:…
GBP/USD to Target 1.5150 Objective on Strong U.K. Retail Sales

GBP/USD to Target 1.5150 Objective on Strong U.K. Retail Sales

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.K. Retail Sales to Increase for Second Consecutive Month in March.

- Will Lower Energy Prices Continue to Boost Private-Sector Spending?

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales

Another 0.5% expansion in U.K. Retail Sales may prompt a larger rebound in GBP/USD as it raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:

GBP/USD Retail Sales

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

It seems as though the BoE is adopting a more hawkish tone for monetary policy and will continue to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank argues that the interest rate path based on market expectations are ‘exceptionally flat.’

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Employment Change (3Mo3M) (FEB)



Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q F)



GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR)



Improved confidence along with the pickup in job growth may spur a better-than-expected retail sales report, and another marked expansion in household spending may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as it raises the fundamental outlook for the U.K.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Average Weekly Earnings inc Bonus (3MoY) (FEB)



Net Consumer Credit (FEB)



M4 Money Supply (YoY ) (FEB)



However, weak wage growth paired with the slowdown in private-sector credit may drag on consumption, and a dismal retail sales print may further delay the BoE’s normalization cycle as the central bank highlights the ongoing slack in the real economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Retail Sales Climbs 0.5% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long British Pound trade.
  • If market reaction favors bullish sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: Household Spending Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction.

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Close above the 1.5000 handle raises the risk for a larger rebound as the RSI retains the bullish momentum carried over from back in March.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) following the BoE Minutes as retail crowd flips net-short GBP/USD, with ratio currently holding at -1.13.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4980 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5015 (50% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.4700 pivot to 1.4710 (78.6% expansion)

Read More:

GBPNZD: Explosive Pattern Taking Shape at Critical Levels

GBPCAD Testing Slope Resistance- Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.84

Impact that the U.K. Retail Sales report has had on GBP during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB 2015

03/26/2015 9:30 GMT





February 2015 U.K. Retail Sales


U.K. Retail Sales expanded 0.7% in February after contracting a revised 0.3% the month prior amid a pickup across all sectors. Despite the rebound in retail spending, it seems as though the Bank of England (BoE) will retain a neutral stance ahead of the May election as the fiscal outlook remains clouded with high uncertainty. The market reaction to the better-than-expected prints was short-lived as GBP/USD slopped back below the 1.4900 handle to end the day at 1.4852.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.